Finding a balance between Japan and China

Finding a balance between Japan and China

Makmur Keliat, Jakarta

Why doesn't Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono visit Beijing after he
visits Tokyo?

One might answer this question by saying that going to Beijing
would take longer and needs much more time to produce results.
However, this argument is certainly open to debate. One can also
raise the following question: Why did Susilo, then, visit the
United States? The fact that it took more than 24 hours to reach
Washington flying from Jakarta, does not explain why the
presidential delegation is not making a trip to Beijing, which is
less than 12 hours from Tokyo.

There is a need to analyze the visits Susilo makes not merely
by looking at what national leaders say but also by using
interpretative lenses.

A bilateral relationship does not exist in a regional
political vacuum; it is shaped by regional dynamics. In this
regard, it is noteworthy that Indonesia, Japan and China through
the ASEAN+3 mechanism have been involved actively in a new
regional initiative, popularly known as the East Asian Community.

The first signal conveyed by Susilo's visit to Tokyo is
actually very clear. Japan has advantages that China does not
have in its bilateral relationship with Indonesia. With the
exception of China, Japanese naval capability remains unrivaled
in the Southeast and East Asia region.

Irrespective of this evidence, Indonesia harbors few
misgivings about Japan's intention to project its military power
into the Southeast Asian region, mainly due to its special
relationship with the United States. Most Indonesian strategic
thinkers have strong a conviction that Japan can be expected to
act as a balancer to neutralize China in the new strategic
environment evolving in the East and Southeast Asian region at
the end of the Cold War era.

In line with this strategic perception, most Indonesian
policy-makers are of the opinion that Japanese economic power is
of great importance to transform the Indonesian economy into a
modern one.

As the largest aid contributor to Indonesia, Japan's Official
Development Assistance (ODA) is vital to build infrastructure
projects in this country. Closely linked with Japan's ODA policy,
the country's multinational corporations through foreign direct
investment have had an important role in nurturing the Indonesian
manufacturing industry. Along with the United States, Japan is
also a major destination for Indonesian exports.

Japan possesses other pluses that China does not have. Despite
the asymmetric economic interdependency between Japan and
Indonesia, most Indonesians are comfortable with the Japanese.
The country's philanthropic projects, disbursed through a number
of foundations such as the Japan and Toyota Foundations, has
played an important role in impressing Indonesians. This factor
seems lacking in the Sino-Indonesian bilateral relationship.

In addition, Tokyo has not been patronizing when crafting its
bilateral relationship with Jakarta.

Hence, the strategic significance of Susilo's visit to Tokyo
is understandable. It mainly intends to strengthen the existing
bilateral relationship by launching new agendas for economic and
trade cooperation.

But since bilateral relationships cannot be isolated from
regional dynamics, the visit could also convey another signal. It
seems both Japan and Indonesia are forging a new common response
to the idea of an East Asian Community.

Japanese multinationals have played a significant role in the
many national economies of the East Asian region by helping to
connect and integrate industrialization and trade in the region.

Therefore, the idea of the East Asia Community is considered
positive and advantageous as it would further cement Japan's
influence in the region for the benefit of all.

And in the detail of how the East Asia region should be
integrated, the Japanese position seems close to that of
Indonesia's.

However, it seems necessary to point out that there could be
strategic disadvantages for Indonesia if Jakarta was seen as
being too close to Tokyo. It could well send a signal to Beijing
that Indonesia and Japan are quietly ganging up on China,
particularly at this crucial juncture when Sino-Japanese
relationship are souring.

Indonesia needs to take this political sensitivity into
consideration when it decides the future direction of its
relationship with China.

To erase such an impression, it seems there is a need for
Susilo to visit Beijing in the near future. Moreover, China has
sought to give a higher priority to establishing Free Trade Areas
(FTAs) with ASEAN countries rather than Japan or South Korea.

Since the latter two countries are perceived as having a more
advanced and competitive economies, China, it seems, believes
FTAs with Japan and South Korea could hurt its national economy.

It is likely then, that China would also feel left out if
Indonesia made a commitment to realizing an FTA with Japan
without making a similar pledge to China.

The writer is the executive director at the Center for East
Asian Cooperation Studies (CEACoS) at the University of
Indonesia.