Finding a balance between Japan and China

Makmur Keliat, Jakarta

Why doesn't Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono visit Beijing after he visits Tokyo?

One might answer this question by saying that going to Beijing would take longer and needs much more time to produce results. However, this argument is certainly open to debate. One can also raise the following question: Why did Susilo, then, visit the United States? The fact that it took more than 24 hours to reach Washington flying from Jakarta, does not explain why the presidential delegation is not making a trip to Beijing, which is less than 12 hours from Tokyo.

There is a need to analyze the visits Susilo makes not merely by looking at what national leaders say but also by using interpretative lenses.

A bilateral relationship does not exist in a regional political vacuum; it is shaped by regional dynamics. In this regard, it is noteworthy that Indonesia, Japan and China through the ASEAN+3 mechanism have been involved actively in a new regional initiative, popularly known as the East Asian Community.

The first signal conveyed by Susilo's visit to Tokyo is actually very clear. Japan has advantages that China does not have in its bilateral relationship with Indonesia. With the exception of China, Japanese naval capability remains unrivaled in the Southeast and East Asia region.

Irrespective of this evidence, Indonesia harbors few misgivings about Japan's intention to project its military power into the Southeast Asian region, mainly due to its special relationship with the United States. Most Indonesian strategic thinkers have strong a conviction that Japan can be expected to act as a balancer to neutralize China in the new strategic environment evolving in the East and Southeast Asian region at the end of the Cold War era.

In line with this strategic perception, most Indonesian policy-makers are of the opinion that Japanese economic power is of great importance to transform the Indonesian economy into a modern one.

As the largest aid contributor to Indonesia, Japan's Official Development Assistance (ODA) is vital to build infrastructure projects in this country. Closely linked with Japan's ODA policy, the country's multinational corporations through foreign direct investment have had an important role in nurturing the Indonesian manufacturing industry. Along with the United States, Japan is also a major destination for Indonesian exports.

Japan possesses other pluses that China does not have. Despite the asymmetric economic interdependency between Japan and Indonesia, most Indonesians are comfortable with the Japanese. The country's philanthropic projects, disbursed through a number of foundations such as the Japan and Toyota Foundations, has played an important role in impressing Indonesians. This factor seems lacking in the Sino-Indonesian bilateral relationship.

In addition, Tokyo has not been patronizing when crafting its bilateral relationship with Jakarta.

Hence, the strategic significance of Susilo's visit to Tokyo is understandable. It mainly intends to strengthen the existing bilateral relationship by launching new agendas for economic and trade cooperation.

But since bilateral relationships cannot be isolated from regional dynamics, the visit could also convey another signal. It seems both Japan and Indonesia are forging a new common response to the idea of an East Asian Community.

Japanese multinationals have played a significant role in the many national economies of the East Asian region by helping to connect and integrate industrialization and trade in the region.

Therefore, the idea of the East Asia Community is considered positive and advantageous as it would further cement Japan's influence in the region for the benefit of all.

And in the detail of how the East Asia region should be integrated, the Japanese position seems close to that of Indonesia's.

However, it seems necessary to point out that there could be strategic disadvantages for Indonesia if Jakarta was seen as being too close to Tokyo. It could well send a signal to Beijing that Indonesia and Japan are quietly ganging up on China, particularly at this crucial juncture when Sino-Japanese relationship are souring.

Indonesia needs to take this political sensitivity into consideration when it decides the future direction of its relationship with China.

To erase such an impression, it seems there is a need for Susilo to visit Beijing in the near future. Moreover, China has sought to give a higher priority to establishing Free Trade Areas (FTAs) with ASEAN countries rather than Japan or South Korea.

Since the latter two countries are perceived as having a more advanced and competitive economies, China, it seems, believes FTAs with Japan and South Korea could hurt its national economy.

It is likely then, that China would also feel left out if Indonesia made a commitment to realizing an FTA with Japan without making a similar pledge to China.

The writer is the executive director at the Center for East Asian Cooperation Studies (CEACoS) at the University of Indonesia.