Finance Minister Purbaya to Evaluate 2026 Budget Fuel Subsidy in One Month Despite Oil Price Surge

Jakarta — Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has explained the government’s decision to evaluate the fuel subsidy budget allocation under the 2026 state budget (APBN) within one month, following the surge in global crude oil prices triggered by Middle Eastern conflict.

This responds to pressure from various quarters urging the government to take immediate action after global crude oil prices breached the $100 per barrel level recently.

“Who says this? If the price falls, what happens then? They’re not in the market. Are they actual market analysts? If you’re an oil analyst, prices can fall quickly,” Purbaya stated firmly at the Presidential Palace Complex on Tuesday, 10 March 2026.

Purbaya explained that current crude oil price fluctuations are occurring too rapidly to serve as a reliable basis for budget calculations. Therefore, he intends to wait approximately one month to observe patterns and perform calculations as a precautionary measure against ongoing volatility.

“We need to confirm whether it’s truly rising or truly falling. Once it rises consistently for several days or weeks, we can anticipate continued increases. But this situation keeps changing suddenly — it rises then falls again. If oil prices drop, we’d have to revise the budget again, which is troublesome,” Purbaya said.

Purbaya emphasised that responses to external factors affecting the state budget must be undertaken with careful consideration, which differs fundamentally from managing stock price movements with shorter time horizons.

“We cannot manage the budget like that. We cannot keep changing it repeatedly — I’m exhausted from constantly revising the budget. We need to ascertain the actual trajectory first. Only once we are certain will we involve everyone in the decision,” he stated.

“I believe one month is sufficient. Prices keep fluctuating. Yesterday it was $120 per barrel, now it’s around $90 per barrel. What if it falls further? It keeps changing. So we will wait to understand the actual direction, and once it becomes clear, we will proceed,” he added.