Finance Minister Purbaya Predicts Indonesian Crude Price To Remain Around US$68 Per Barrel

Jakarta — Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa expressed confidence that Indonesia’s benchmark crude price, the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP), will remain well below the government’s macroeconomic assumptions despite ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States-Israel alliance.

Purbaya stated that the ICP realisation in February 2026 remained at US$68.8 per barrel, substantially lower than the 2026 state budget assumption of US$70 per barrel. He estimated the year-to-date average ICP through 11 March 2026 would settle at approximately US$68.4 per barrel.

“Until February, it was US$68.8 per barrel. Based on our estimates, the average ICP realisation year to date through 11 March 2026 is around US$68 per barrel,” Purbaya said during a press conference on state budget realisations at his office in Jakarta on Wednesday, 11 March 2026.

The finance minister explained that the crude price estimate already accounted for the spike in oil prices following the escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States-Israel alliance, including disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s primary energy trade routes.

“This already incorporates the spike to US$112 that occurred recently. It remains below the state budget assumption of US$70. This is why we still have fiscal space to anticipate price increases in the implementation of the state budget,” Purbaya said.

With these factors considered, Purbaya expressed confidence that the government’s budget would not face severe pressure from deficits resulting from volatile global crude prices. However, he affirmed that the government would remain vigilant in anticipating unforeseen risks that could directly impact the budget.

“Many people asked yesterday whether the government would immediately revise the state budget if oil prices reached US$100. The answer is no, because when we look at the average, it still stands at US$68,” Purbaya stated.