Finance Minister Purbaya Denies Indonesia Heading Towards Recession, Dismisses "Strange" Economists

Jakarta — Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa rejected statements from various quarters claiming Indonesia’s economy is heading towards recession. During a full cabinet session at the State Palace in Jakarta on Friday (13 March 2026), Purbaya stated that various economic indicators instead showed a strengthening trend and accelerated growth. One such indicator is the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which reached 53.8 in February 2026.

This figure is among the highest in recent years and signals that the manufacturing sector is in an expansion phase.

“They say we’re already in recession. Those somewhat strange economists say we’re already in recession, just awaiting collapse. But if we look at the data, PMI has risen to high levels. And looking at Mandiri MSI, the Mandiri Index, it’s now at 360.7 with an upward trend,” Purbaya said.

He explained that PMI data reflected strong growth in the production or supply side of the economy. He noted this also served as confirmation from non-government institutions that Indonesian economic activity was increasing.

Several other indicators also showed positive trends. Purbaya cited February 2026 automobile sales growth of 12.2 per cent compared to the same period the previous year.

Consumption performance was also evident from retail sales growth of 6.9 per cent year-on-year. This figure indicated that domestic demand remained strong.

The finance minister added that public optimism was also reflected in the consumer confidence index, which stood at 125.2. This level was considered sufficiently high and reflected growing public confidence in economic conditions.

“Many people say purchasing power has been damaged. Yes, if people are struggling, they remain struggling, but we’re looking at the general situation. The general situation is captured by consumer confidence surveys. So public purchasing power is indeed improving,” Purbaya explained.