Finance Minister Purbaya Assesses Indonesia Still Safe from Energy Emergency: Supply Still Available

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa assesses that Indonesia remains in a safe position from the threat of an energy emergency, even as global conflicts escalate, including rising tensions between Israel, the United States, and Iran.

He emphasised that the government currently has no plans to change the structure of the 2026 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) or the ongoing energy subsidy policies.

“Our APBN is still resilient. I won’t change the APBN or the existing subsidies until the point where oil prices might become extremely high,” Purbaya said in Jakarta.

According to him, Indonesia’s fiscal condition is still sufficiently strong to face potential pressures from fluctuations in global oil prices. As long as oil prices remain within manageable limits, fiscal policies do not need drastic adjustments.

He also highlighted the difference in the concept of an “energy emergency,” which is more caused by supply disruptions rather than solely price increases.

“An energy emergency isn’t about the APBN. It means if the supply stops, that’s what I’m worried about. Not the price, but if there’s no supply. Right now, there is still supply, so it can’t be called an emergency yet,” Purbaya stated.

As a comparison, the Philippines previously declared a national energy emergency status on 24 March 2026 due to supply disruptions of fuel from the Middle East region.

However, the Indonesian government assesses that the domestic situation remains controlled because energy supplies are still available.

Furthermore, Purbaya assured that there are no plans to change fuel oil (BBM) subsidy policies in the near term. The government chooses to maintain budget stability while monitoring global developments.

From the macroeconomic assumptions perspective, the current Indonesia Crude Price (ICP) is around US$74 per barrel, equivalent to Rp1,252,600 per barrel (exchange rate Rp16,900), slightly above the 2026 APBN assumption of around US$70 per barrel or equivalent to Rp1,183,000 per barrel (exchange rate Rp16,900).

Although there has been an increase, the difference is still considered within safe limits and does not require urgent fiscal policy adjustments.