Finally, ASEAN is showing teeth

Finally, ASEAN is showing teeth

Jane Macartney, Reuters/Singapore

It's not every day that Colin Powell dresses up as a construction
worker and belts out the 1970s disco hit YMCA.

The U.S. Secretary of State's showstopping performance at the
traditional closing dinner of the annual Association of South
East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum would seem to be the
highlight of what is usually a lackluster event.

But an unsung deal this year to put flesh on the bones of an
ASEAN Security Community could mark a significant step by a group
long seen as ineffectual -- ruled by the principle of non-
interference and a readiness only to move at the speed of its
slowest member.

In their closed-door talks last week, the 10 members of ASEAN
hammered out the wording for the plan that will be presented to
leaders for ratification at a summit in Laos in November.

They are looking at measures that will include regional
maritime safety and intelligence exchanges, but have discarded a
proposal by Indonesia for a Southeast Asian peacekeeping force.

"It would have been catastrophic to have had no agreement on
the security community. This is an important development," said
ASEAN expert Ralf Emmers at the Singapore Institute of Defense
and Strategic Studies.

"The security community was Indonesia's idea and so a more
watered-down version may be a disappointment to Jakarta," he
said. "But it's one of those stepping stones."

ASEAN comprises Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei,
Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.

"We finished the plan of action," ASEAN Secretary-General Ong
Keng Yong told Reuters. "It's a more practical version of an
idealistic original that focuses on doables and aims to deliver
results."

Ong did not give details of where changes or compromises had
been made in sensitive defense cooperation.

"There are, as you might expect, disagreements on how far to
go," said former ASEAN secretary general Rodolfo Severino. "But
if you read closely, there are some new things like defense
cooperation and opposition to weapons of mass destruction."

Almost certainly, Jakarta's suggestion of a peacekeeping force
fell by the wayside as too intrusive, but analysts say the
principles embodied will sharpen the teeth of ASEAN, which groups
strategically sensitive nations.

The mere fact the U.S. Secretary of State flies halfway round
the world every year to make sure not to miss the annual
gathering is evidence of ASEAN's significance.

While the group has decided not to bare its teeth -- at least
not this year and not in public -- on one of its most intractable
problems, it appears to be becoming quietly forceful behind
closed doors.

ASEAN has been jolted by a U.S. threat to downgrade its
presence at ARF if it does not do something about army-ruled
member Myanmar, which has become an international pariah over its
suppression of the pro-democracy movement led by detained Nobel
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

With Yangon due to take over the ASEAN chair in 2006 and to
play host to regional meetings, the European Union has said it
may not attend a two-yearly summit with Asia in Hanoi in October
without progress by the junta to free Suu Kyi.

The United States has made clear the Secretary of State will
not attend ARF in Myanmar without political liberalization, and
is likely to be represented by an official no higher than a
staffer from a regional embassy.

"ASEAN realizes that what Myanmar has done is put them over a
barrel," said Brad Glosserman of the Pacific Forum CSIS in
Hawaii. "The unwillingness of one or two people in the Myanmar
government is threatening the ASEAN larger role."

In its end-of-meeting statement, ASEAN did little more than
slap Myanmar on the wrist, toning down its censure last year and
avoiding direct mention of Suu Kyi.

But behind the scenes, ASEAN members are showing their anger.

"Pressure is building and they should recognize this is doing
damage to ASEAN," Ong said, adding that in closed meetings ASEAN
told Myanmar Foreign Minister Win Aung that more must be done.

The last thing ASEAN wants is a no-show by the Secretary of
State.

"If Myanmar threatens that, then they have essentially
undermined the longer standing credibility of the region," said
Glosserman.

"What we are going to see now is the readiness of ASEAN to
face a challenge it hasn't before," he said. "The prospect of
Myanmar taking the chair is going to demonstrate the willingness
of ASEAN to be master of its own fate."