Figuring the party angle

James Kallman, Jakarta

Indonesia's first direct presidential election has given political pundits a new conundrum to crack. However, I can't agree with those who say that political parties don't matter. For in the end it will be their influence that is likely to deliver the deciding votes.

If one looks at the percentages gained in the first round of voting, some interesting figures appear in relation to the attraction the major candidates had outside their party allegiance.

Third placed Wiranto was clearly the least attractive to voters outside of Golkar, gaining only 22.2 percent of the vote compared to Golkar's 21.58 percent in the general election.

President Megawati Soekarnoputri fared a little better, boosting PDI-P's 18.53 percent general election tally to 26.6 percent in the presidential contest.

The big winner was obviously Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who buoyed by the 7.45 percent his new party gained in the general election, rode the crest of a wave of public popularity to gain 33.6 percent

The reasons for this are quite simple. Politics in Indonesia lacks maturity, which is of course understandable given the fact that even free general elections are still a novelty. Yet even in more mature democracies like the U.S., presidential elections often become little more than popularity contests rather than based on reasoned debate about the serious issues facing the nation.

As came to the fore in the Indian elections earlier this year, what matters to the vast majority of the electorate in developing countries is not foreign or economic policy, but the basic things like the availability of roads, clean water, electricity, education and healthcare.

In this regard, many in the country are not yet entirely convinced that the government of President Megawati has produced enough real changes in ideology from that of the previous decades. Thus Bambang Yudhoyono represents a fresh face, and perhaps new ideas.

Yet can this last as the two candidates chase their share of the near 40 percent as yet unclaimed vote that is up for grabs in September?

With some 70 percent of supporters of unsuccessful candidates reportedly undecided, expansions of the pie charts of the views of those with a preference suggest that Bambang Yodhoyono should win with some ease.

This would appear though to be a case of extrapolating the particular to the general, a practice fraught with danger, as my old schoolmaster used to drum into us.

The advantages that Susilo has enjoyed so far may not be so evident come September. The lack of maturity in Indonesian politics could actually begin to work against him.

The vast majority of the so-called undecided votes are likely to go along the lines of party endorsement. Thus the best horse- trader will stand a very good chance of winning.

Of particular importance will be the Wiranto (read Golkar) share of the vote, as whichever side reaches the best accommodation is likely to be in pole position.

Much has also been made of the sharp decline in numbers voting, the sign of a population already tired of a process that has so far brought little measurable benefit to their day-to-day lives. One would have sincere doubts though that it would reach the level of apathy found in the UK or U.S., where often less than half of the electorate turns out to vote.

Any decline in voter turnout however, only enhances the importance of the dedicated party vote, for it is the diehards rather than the floating voter who will make the greatest effort to vote. Dedicated party vote usually means dedicated party workers too, people with the organization and experience in ensuring that all their supporters get to the polls.

Thus adding all things together, and particularly if Megawati can find common ground with Wiranto and Golkar, it would appear that our incumbent president could be hard to beat in September.

The writer is President Director of Moores Rowland, a Jakarta- based consultancy and corporate advisory service.