Figuring the party angle

Figuring the party angle

James Kallman, Jakarta

Indonesia's first direct presidential election has given
political pundits a new conundrum to crack. However, I can't
agree with those who say that political parties don't matter. For
in the end it will be their influence that is likely to deliver
the deciding votes.

If one looks at the percentages gained in the first round of
voting, some interesting figures appear in relation to the
attraction the major candidates had outside their party
allegiance.

Third placed Wiranto was clearly the least attractive to
voters outside of Golkar, gaining only 22.2 percent of the vote
compared to Golkar's 21.58 percent in the general election.

President Megawati Soekarnoputri fared a little better,
boosting PDI-P's 18.53 percent general election tally to 26.6
percent in the presidential contest.

The big winner was obviously Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who
buoyed by the 7.45 percent his new party gained in the general
election, rode the crest of a wave of public popularity to gain
33.6 percent

The reasons for this are quite simple. Politics in Indonesia
lacks maturity, which is of course understandable given the fact
that even free general elections are still a novelty. Yet even in
more mature democracies like the U.S., presidential elections
often become little more than popularity contests rather than
based on reasoned debate about the serious issues facing the
nation.

As came to the fore in the Indian elections earlier this year,
what matters to the vast majority of the electorate in developing
countries is not foreign or economic policy, but the basic things
like the availability of roads, clean water, electricity,
education and healthcare.

In this regard, many in the country are not yet entirely
convinced that the government of President Megawati has produced
enough real changes in ideology from that of the previous
decades. Thus Bambang Yudhoyono represents a fresh face, and
perhaps new ideas.

Yet can this last as the two candidates chase their share of
the near 40 percent as yet unclaimed vote that is up for grabs in
September?

With some 70 percent of supporters of unsuccessful candidates
reportedly undecided, expansions of the pie charts of the views
of those with a preference suggest that Bambang Yodhoyono should
win with some ease.

This would appear though to be a case of extrapolating the
particular to the general, a practice fraught with danger, as my
old schoolmaster used to drum into us.

The advantages that Susilo has enjoyed so far may not be so
evident come September. The lack of maturity in Indonesian
politics could actually begin to work against him.

The vast majority of the so-called undecided votes are likely
to go along the lines of party endorsement. Thus the best horse-
trader will stand a very good chance of winning.

Of particular importance will be the Wiranto (read Golkar)
share of the vote, as whichever side reaches the best
accommodation is likely to be in pole position.

Much has also been made of the sharp decline in numbers
voting, the sign of a population already tired of a process that
has so far brought little measurable benefit to their day-to-day
lives. One would have sincere doubts though that it would reach
the level of apathy found in the UK or U.S., where often less
than half of the electorate turns out to vote.

Any decline in voter turnout however, only enhances the
importance of the dedicated party vote, for it is the diehards
rather than the floating voter who will make the greatest effort
to vote. Dedicated party vote usually means dedicated party
workers too, people with the organization and experience in
ensuring that all their supporters get to the polls.

Thus adding all things together, and particularly if Megawati
can find common ground with Wiranto and Golkar, it would appear
that our incumbent president could be hard to beat in September.

The writer is President Director of Moores Rowland, a Jakarta-
based consultancy and corporate advisory service.