Figuring the party angle<\/p>\n
James Kallman, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Indonesia's first direct presidential election has given
\npolitical pundits a new conundrum to crack. However, I can't
\nagree with those who say that political parties don't matter. For
\nin the end it will be their influence that is likely to deliver
\nthe deciding votes.<\/p>\n
If one looks at the percentages gained in the first round of
\nvoting, some interesting figures appear in relation to the
\nattraction the major candidates had outside their party
\nallegiance.<\/p>\n
Third placed Wiranto was clearly the least attractive to
\nvoters outside of Golkar, gaining only 22.2 percent of the vote
\ncompared to Golkar's 21.58 percent in the general election.<\/p>\n
President Megawati Soekarnoputri fared a little better,
\nboosting PDI-P's 18.53 percent general election tally to 26.6
\npercent in the presidential contest.<\/p>\n
The big winner was obviously Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who
\nbuoyed by the 7.45 percent his new party gained in the general
\nelection, rode the crest of a wave of public popularity to gain
\n33.6 percent<\/p>\n
The reasons for this are quite simple. Politics in Indonesia
\nlacks maturity, which is of course understandable given the fact
\nthat even free general elections are still a novelty. Yet even in
\nmore mature democracies like the U.S., presidential elections
\noften become little more than popularity contests rather than
\nbased on reasoned debate about the serious issues facing the
\nnation.<\/p>\n
As came to the fore in the Indian elections earlier this year,
\nwhat matters to the vast majority of the electorate in developing
\ncountries is not foreign or economic policy, but the basic things
\nlike the availability of roads, clean water, electricity,
\neducation and healthcare.<\/p>\n
In this regard, many in the country are not yet entirely
\nconvinced that the government of President Megawati has produced
\nenough real changes in ideology from that of the previous
\ndecades. Thus Bambang Yudhoyono represents a fresh face, and
\nperhaps new ideas.<\/p>\n
Yet can this last as the two candidates chase their share of
\nthe near 40 percent as yet unclaimed vote that is up for grabs in
\nSeptember?<\/p>\n
With some 70 percent of supporters of unsuccessful candidates
\nreportedly undecided, expansions of the pie charts of the views
\nof those with a preference suggest that Bambang Yodhoyono should
\nwin with some ease.<\/p>\n
This would appear though to be a case of extrapolating the
\nparticular to the general, a practice fraught with danger, as my
\nold schoolmaster used to drum into us.<\/p>\n
The advantages that Susilo has enjoyed so far may not be so
\nevident come September. The lack of maturity in Indonesian
\npolitics could actually begin to work against him.<\/p>\n
The vast majority of the so-called undecided votes are likely
\nto go along the lines of party endorsement. Thus the best horse-
\ntrader will stand a very good chance of winning.<\/p>\n
Of particular importance will be the Wiranto (read Golkar)
\nshare of the vote, as whichever side reaches the best
\naccommodation is likely to be in pole position.<\/p>\n
Much has also been made of the sharp decline in numbers
\nvoting, the sign of a population already tired of a process that
\nhas so far brought little measurable benefit to their day-to-day
\nlives. One would have sincere doubts though that it would reach
\nthe level of apathy found in the UK or U.S., where often less
\nthan half of the electorate turns out to vote.<\/p>\n
Any decline in voter turnout however, only enhances the
\nimportance of the dedicated party vote, for it is the diehards
\nrather than the floating voter who will make the greatest effort
\nto vote. Dedicated party vote usually means dedicated party
\nworkers too, people with the organization and experience in
\nensuring that all their supporters get to the polls.<\/p>\n
Thus adding all things together, and particularly if Megawati
\ncan find common ground with Wiranto and Golkar, it would appear
\nthat our incumbent president could be hard to beat in September.<\/p>\n
The writer is President Director of Moores Rowland, a Jakarta-
\nbased consultancy and corporate advisory service.<\/p>",
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