Farmers Brace as BMKG Warns of Impending Blistering Heat as El Niño Looms
Jakarta — The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned of the potential El Niño climate anomaly set to affect Indonesia in 2026. BMKG has issued its latest forecast for the dry season in Indonesia for 2026, stating that the 2026 dry season will arrive earlier, be drier than normal, and last longer. Meanwhile, the weak La Niña that has afflicted Indonesia since October 2025 is confirmed to have ended in February 2026.
El Niño watch
BMKG cautions that all parties should refer to this latest forecast when establishing mitigation and adaptation measures, as well as long-term guidance for sectors affected by climate.
“Regarding the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 2026. El Niño is currently in a Neutral phase or ENSO is in Neutral. And El Niño is likely to occur from mid-2026,” said Ardhasena, Deputy for Climatology at BMKG, at a BMKG press conference: Update on the 2026 Dry Season Forecast in Indonesia broadcast on BMKG’s YouTube channel, on Wednesday 4 March 2026.
“BMKG monitoring of global climate anomalies in the Pacific Ocean shows that in February 2026 the weak La Niña phenomenon has ended. And ENSO conditions are now in Neutral with an index of -0.28,” he explained.
Separately, from sea surface temperature monitoring in the Indian Ocean, he added, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is Neutral with an index of +0.4.
Ardhasena explained that Neutral ENSO conditions are forecast to last until June 2026.
“From mid-2026 onwards, our forecast indicates there is a 50–60% chance of El Niño occurring, in the weak-to-moderate category,” Ardhasena said.
“Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to remain Neutral throughout 2026,” he added.
El Niño and IOD
What is El Niño?
ENSO is a climatic phenomenon that plays a major role in weather and climate worldwide, including Indonesia.
Citing BMKG’s official site, El Niño is one of the ENSO phases characterised by a weakening — or even reversal — of the trade winds that usually blow from east to west. This weakening is associated with the expansion of warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. Warmer water shifting eastwards causes evaporation, clouds, and rainfall to move away from Indonesia.
In simple terms, El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than usual, which can reduce rainfall in Indonesia, especially if Indonesian waters are cool.
This means Indonesia faces an increased risk of drought.
Meanwhile, the IOD is a phenomenon resulting from the interaction of sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, between the eastern coast of Africa and the western part of Sumatra, which strongly determines rainfall patterns in Indonesia.
If the IOD is positive, the sea-surface temperature anomaly off the eastern Africa coast is higher than in the western part of Sumatra. This can reduce rainfall in western Indonesia. A negative IOD generally enhances rainfall in western Indonesia.
Dry Season Forecast 2026
Ardhasena outlined that the start of the dry season in Indonesia for 2026 is generally linked to the west-to-east monsoon (or the Asian monsoon) transitioning to the east-to-west monsoon, known as the Australian Monsoon.
From 699 Seasonal Zones (ZOM) in Indonesia, 144 ZOM or 16.3% will enter the dry season in April 2026. These include the northern coast of western Java, most of Central Java through East Java, a small portion of Bali, most of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), a small portion of South Kalimantan, and a small portion of South Sulawesi.
Meanwhile, 184 ZOM or 26.3% are predicted to enter the dry season in May 2026. These cover parts of Sumatra, western Java, small parts of Central Java through East Java, Bali, small portions of NTB, southern Kalimantan, small parts of Sulawesi, parts of Maluku, and parts of Papua Island.
And 163 ZOM or 23.3% are predicted to start the dry season in June 2026. These include most of Sumatra, small parts of Java, most of Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, parts of Maluku, and small parts of Papua.
“If we compare with the climatological baseline, the early start to the 2026 dry season that we will face is forecast to advance in 46.5% of all Seasonal Zones or 325 Zones. This is the same as the normal condition, i.e., around 173 Seasonal Zones or 24.7%. And a retreat in 72 Seasonal Zones or 10.3% of all Seasonal Zones,” Ardhasena explained.
“Next, regarding the rainfall nature of the 2026 dry season, overall we predict it will be below normal or drier than usual,” he added.
BMKG Recommendations to Anticipate the Impacts of the 2026 Dry Season
To anticipate the 2026 Dry Season, Ardhasena said, BMKG provides recommendations to the Ministries and Agencies, Local Governments, related institutions, and the entire community.
“For the agriculture sector, to adjust planting schedules and choose crop varieties that require less water, are more drought-tolerant, and have shorter growing cycles,” he stated.
“For the water resources sector, revitalise reservoirs, improve the water distribution network, and ensure water availability for community needs during the dry season,” he added.
“In the energy sector, BMKG urges ensuring that dam water capacity is adequate for hydroelectric power plant operations (PLTA).”
“In the environmental sector, local governments are asked to prepare rapid response mechanisms to anticipate possible declines in air quality.”
“Finally, for the forestry and disaster management sector, we need readiness for potential drought.”