Exposing How International Economists Think, Purbaya Says: They Cannot Truly Forecast!
Jakarta — Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has laid bare the thinking behind economic projections issued by international financial institutions, asserting that their economists cannot truly forecast a country’s economic performance with accuracy or precision.
Purbaya stressed that economists at these institutions essentially rely on guesswork based on the most recent realised figures, frequently revising their projections whenever new developments emerge.
“I know how these economic forecasters think. They look at the latest data, plug it in, and if it goes up, their forecast goes up too. They cannot truly forecast — they simply follow the latest numbers,” Purbaya said during the ‘Apa Kabar Indonesia Pagi’ programme on TvOne on Friday, 20 February 2026.
He cited the period approaching the end of 2025 as an example. At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Indonesia’s fourth-quarter 2025 economic growth would reach only 4.9 per cent, a figure mirrored by JP Morgan’s projection.
In reality, however, national economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 came in at a positive 5.39 per cent year-on-year, surpassing both institutions’ projections.
Based on the Q4 2025 outcome, the IMF then used it merely as a reference point to project that Indonesia’s economy in 2026 would continue to grow at 5.1 per cent, in line with the full-year 2025 growth realisation.
“You saw it yourself. The IMF and JP Morgan predicted our economy at 4.9 per cent. But we were able to demonstrate an improving trend in the fourth quarter, from around 5 point something to 5.39 per cent. That represents a break — from a declining trajectory, suddenly rising,” Purbaya said.
“Upon seeing that, they all immediately revised their economic forecasts. This year, the IMF has already raised its projection to 5.2 per cent, and JP Morgan has likewise moved to 5.2 per cent,” he added.
Purbaya expressed confidence that as the national economy continues to strengthen, international financial institutions will inevitably revise their projections for Indonesia’s 2026 economic growth upwards once again.
“I am confident that by mid-year they will revise upwards to an even higher level. Because we will push the economy to grow at a faster pace. The first quarter could potentially grow between 5.6 and 6 per cent. And this is not optimism — it is what will actually happen,” he said.