Experts identify areas of possible future unrest

Experts identify areas of possible future unrest

JAKARTA (JP): Experts warned unrest was likely either to occur
or accelerate in West Java and several areas outside of Java,
including Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan; Balikpapan, East
Kalimantan; Lampung, Sumatra and Jayapura, Irian Jaya.

The unrest will mostly be sparked by nonpolitical factors such
as economics and ethnic and religions differences, but will be
politically motivated, historian Ahmad Manshur Suryanegara of
Padjajaran University in Bandung and sociologist Thamrin Amal
Tomagola of the University of Indonesia separately said on
Sunday.

"Hired provocateurs will play significant roles in creating
riots in the field, and there's not much we can do about this,"
Manshur said in a telephone interview. "Even the Armed Forces is
unable to identify them due to their neat network engineered by
foreign powers to break this country apart."

"Foreign interference through religious missions performed by
Protestant missionaries in the jungles of Kalimantan will likely
spark riots in the coming weeks in areas such as Palangkaraya,"
Manshur also said.

Foreign missionaries, who Manshur believes do not instill
nationalism, may prompt aggressive behavior from their
congregations. In the case of Kalimantan, the congregations are
Dayaks, he said.

Palangkaraya is about 60 percent Christian and 40 percent
Muslim, Manshur noted.

"Palangkaraya could be rocked by conflicts between the Dayaks
(who are mostly Christian) and the (Muslim) Malays. (These) would
be unlike the conflicts in Sambas, West Kalimantan," he said.

In Sambas, bloody clashes which so far have killed 200 people
occurred between Madurese migrants and the Dayaks, whose allies
in the violence were the Malays.

To avoid such unrest, Christian leaders must arrange for
foreign missionaries to be replaced with local missionaries with
a strong sense of nationalism, he said.

Manshur also said that around May unrest may hit West Java in
a number of areas, including Kopo on the outskirts of Bandung and
the towns of Tasikmalaya and Sukabumi.

"The riots, in terms of time and location, may inch toward the
center of power, which is Jakarta," he said. "Riots may hit areas
in West Java which are not easily reached or well-covered by
security forces."

Foreign powers, including the United States, may use certain
dates, including May 23, which is the anniversary of the now-
outlawed Indonesian Communist Party (PKI), he said.

"Historically, West Java is the strongest base of the PKI
because its followers dispersed (around the time of the aborted
coup attempt blamed on the party) rather than being massacred
like those in Central and East Java," he said.

The nearest areas to Jakarta which may easily be sparked to
riot are Tangerang, Bogor and Bekasi, all in West Java, he added.

"Simple criminal actions in those areas, such as the
activities of hoodlums or brawls between residents... will
become typical triggers of unrest," he said.

The riots will be aimed at sabotaging the June 7 general
election and destroying the chances of President B.J. Habibie
being elected, Manshur noted.

Manshur believes the United States played a large role in
previous riots and again will play a role in the predicted future
unrest.

"Historically, the U.S. has always interfered in the country's
political process. This time they want Indonesia to break into
small countries based on ethnic groups."

"I think the U.S feels threatened (because) Habibie favors
cooperation with Australia and the European Union," Manshur
stated.

The overall picture in the country shows an effort to destroy
Islamic powers by breaking the lines of transportation and other
economic bases run by the migrant ethnic groups the Bugis and the
Madurese, he said.

"Most of the riots have similar characteristics. The Bugis
(from South Sulawesi) and the Madurese (from East Java's island
of Madura) were the targets in the Ambon and Sambas unrest,"
Manshur added.

Thamrin, however, based his analysis of possible future riots
on four factors; the religious and ethnic polarization of social
groups, uneven economic distribution, insecurity and pressure
among communities and the ruling Golkar's tendency to take the
side of certain groups of people.

"Riots are unlikely to hit areas where the community is
dominated by a certain ethnic group or religion. The smaller
parties will not dare take the risk and go against the bigger
groups," Thamrin said.

Thamrin said volatile areas were as follows:

* The areas along the northern coast of Java (Pantura) in
which Golkar seems to be involved in a fierce competition with
the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and
the National Awakening Party (PKB).

* Jayapura, Merauke and Manokwari in Irian Jaya, where locals
abhor "annexation" by Javanese migrants.

* Towns which have dynamic economic development, including
Balikpapan, East Kalimantan, Medan, North Sumatra and Lampung.
(edt)