Experts identify areas of possible future unrest

JAKARTA (JP): Experts warned unrest was likely either to occur or accelerate in West Java and several areas outside of Java, including Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan; Balikpapan, East Kalimantan; Lampung, Sumatra and Jayapura, Irian Jaya.

The unrest will mostly be sparked by nonpolitical factors such as economics and ethnic and religions differences, but will be politically motivated, historian Ahmad Manshur Suryanegara of Padjajaran University in Bandung and sociologist Thamrin Amal Tomagola of the University of Indonesia separately said on Sunday.

"Hired provocateurs will play significant roles in creating riots in the field, and there's not much we can do about this," Manshur said in a telephone interview. "Even the Armed Forces is unable to identify them due to their neat network engineered by foreign powers to break this country apart."

"Foreign interference through religious missions performed by Protestant missionaries in the jungles of Kalimantan will likely spark riots in the coming weeks in areas such as Palangkaraya," Manshur also said.

Foreign missionaries, who Manshur believes do not instill nationalism, may prompt aggressive behavior from their congregations. In the case of Kalimantan, the congregations are Dayaks, he said.

Palangkaraya is about 60 percent Christian and 40 percent Muslim, Manshur noted.

"Palangkaraya could be rocked by conflicts between the Dayaks (who are mostly Christian) and the (Muslim) Malays. (These) would be unlike the conflicts in Sambas, West Kalimantan," he said.

In Sambas, bloody clashes which so far have killed 200 people occurred between Madurese migrants and the Dayaks, whose allies in the violence were the Malays.

To avoid such unrest, Christian leaders must arrange for foreign missionaries to be replaced with local missionaries with a strong sense of nationalism, he said.

Manshur also said that around May unrest may hit West Java in a number of areas, including Kopo on the outskirts of Bandung and the towns of Tasikmalaya and Sukabumi.

"The riots, in terms of time and location, may inch toward the center of power, which is Jakarta," he said. "Riots may hit areas in West Java which are not easily reached or well-covered by security forces."

Foreign powers, including the United States, may use certain dates, including May 23, which is the anniversary of the now- outlawed Indonesian Communist Party (PKI), he said.

"Historically, West Java is the strongest base of the PKI because its followers dispersed (around the time of the aborted coup attempt blamed on the party) rather than being massacred like those in Central and East Java," he said.

The nearest areas to Jakarta which may easily be sparked to riot are Tangerang, Bogor and Bekasi, all in West Java, he added.

"Simple criminal actions in those areas, such as the activities of hoodlums or brawls between residents... will become typical triggers of unrest," he said.

The riots will be aimed at sabotaging the June 7 general election and destroying the chances of President B.J. Habibie being elected, Manshur noted.

Manshur believes the United States played a large role in previous riots and again will play a role in the predicted future unrest.

"Historically, the U.S. has always interfered in the country's political process. This time they want Indonesia to break into small countries based on ethnic groups."

"I think the U.S feels threatened (because) Habibie favors cooperation with Australia and the European Union," Manshur stated.

The overall picture in the country shows an effort to destroy Islamic powers by breaking the lines of transportation and other economic bases run by the migrant ethnic groups the Bugis and the Madurese, he said.

"Most of the riots have similar characteristics. The Bugis (from South Sulawesi) and the Madurese (from East Java's island of Madura) were the targets in the Ambon and Sambas unrest," Manshur added.

Thamrin, however, based his analysis of possible future riots on four factors; the religious and ethnic polarization of social groups, uneven economic distribution, insecurity and pressure among communities and the ruling Golkar's tendency to take the side of certain groups of people.

"Riots are unlikely to hit areas where the community is dominated by a certain ethnic group or religion. The smaller parties will not dare take the risk and go against the bigger groups," Thamrin said.

Thamrin said volatile areas were as follows:

* The areas along the northern coast of Java (Pantura) in which Golkar seems to be involved in a fierce competition with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

* Jayapura, Merauke and Manokwari in Irian Jaya, where locals abhor "annexation" by Javanese migrants.

* Towns which have dynamic economic development, including Balikpapan, East Kalimantan, Medan, North Sumatra and Lampung. (edt)