Experts identify areas of possible future unrest<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Experts warned unrest was likely either to occur
\nor accelerate in West Java and several areas outside of Java,
\nincluding Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan; Balikpapan, East
\nKalimantan; Lampung, Sumatra and Jayapura, Irian Jaya.<\/p>\n
The unrest will mostly be sparked by nonpolitical factors such
\nas economics and ethnic and religions differences, but will be
\npolitically motivated, historian Ahmad Manshur Suryanegara of
\nPadjajaran University in Bandung and sociologist Thamrin Amal
\nTomagola of the University of Indonesia separately said on
\nSunday.<\/p>\n
\"Hired provocateurs will play significant roles in creating
\nriots in the field, and there's not much we can do about this,\"
\nManshur said in a telephone interview. \"Even the Armed Forces is
\nunable to identify them due to their neat network engineered by
\nforeign powers to break this country apart.\"<\/p>\n
\"Foreign interference through religious missions performed by
\nProtestant missionaries in the jungles of Kalimantan will likely
\nspark riots in the coming weeks in areas such as Palangkaraya,\"
\nManshur also said.<\/p>\n
Foreign missionaries, who Manshur believes do not instill
\nnationalism, may prompt aggressive behavior from their
\ncongregations. In the case of Kalimantan, the congregations are
\nDayaks, he said.<\/p>\n
Palangkaraya is about 60 percent Christian and 40 percent
\nMuslim, Manshur noted.<\/p>\n
\"Palangkaraya could be rocked by conflicts between the Dayaks
\n(who are mostly Christian) and the (Muslim) Malays. (These) would
\nbe unlike the conflicts in Sambas, West Kalimantan,\" he said.<\/p>\n
In Sambas, bloody clashes which so far have killed 200 people
\noccurred between Madurese migrants and the Dayaks, whose allies
\nin the violence were the Malays.<\/p>\n
To avoid such unrest, Christian leaders must arrange for
\nforeign missionaries to be replaced with local missionaries with
\na strong sense of nationalism, he said.<\/p>\n
Manshur also said that around May unrest may hit West Java in
\na number of areas, including Kopo on the outskirts of Bandung and
\nthe towns of Tasikmalaya and Sukabumi.<\/p>\n
\"The riots, in terms of time and location, may inch toward the
\ncenter of power, which is Jakarta,\" he said. \"Riots may hit areas
\nin West Java which are not easily reached or well-covered by
\nsecurity forces.\"<\/p>\n
Foreign powers, including the United States, may use certain
\ndates, including May 23, which is the anniversary of the now-
\noutlawed Indonesian Communist Party (PKI), he said.<\/p>\n
\"Historically, West Java is the strongest base of the PKI
\nbecause its followers dispersed (around the time of the aborted
\ncoup attempt blamed on the party) rather than being massacred
\nlike those in Central and East Java,\" he said.<\/p>\n
The nearest areas to Jakarta which may easily be sparked to
\nriot are Tangerang, Bogor and Bekasi, all in West Java, he added.<\/p>\n
\"Simple criminal actions in those areas, such as the
\nactivities of hoodlums or brawls between residents... will
\nbecome typical triggers of unrest,\" he said.<\/p>\n
The riots will be aimed at sabotaging the June 7 general
\nelection and destroying the chances of President B.J. Habibie
\nbeing elected, Manshur noted.<\/p>\n
Manshur believes the United States played a large role in
\nprevious riots and again will play a role in the predicted future
\nunrest.<\/p>\n
\"Historically, the U.S. has always interfered in the country's
\npolitical process. This time they want Indonesia to break into
\nsmall countries based on ethnic groups.\"<\/p>\n
\"I think the U.S feels threatened (because) Habibie favors
\ncooperation with Australia and the European Union,\" Manshur
\nstated.<\/p>\n
The overall picture in the country shows an effort to destroy
\nIslamic powers by breaking the lines of transportation and other
\neconomic bases run by the migrant ethnic groups the Bugis and the
\nMadurese, he said.<\/p>\n
\"Most of the riots have similar characteristics. The Bugis
\n(from South Sulawesi) and the Madurese (from East Java's island
\nof Madura) were the targets in the Ambon and Sambas unrest,\"
\nManshur added.<\/p>\n
Thamrin, however, based his analysis of possible future riots
\non four factors; the religious and ethnic polarization of social
\ngroups, uneven economic distribution, insecurity and pressure
\namong communities and the ruling Golkar's tendency to take the
\nside of certain groups of people.<\/p>\n
\"Riots are unlikely to hit areas where the community is
\ndominated by a certain ethnic group or religion. The smaller
\nparties will not dare take the risk and go against the bigger
\ngroups,\" Thamrin said.<\/p>\n
Thamrin said volatile areas were as follows:<\/p>\n
* The areas along the northern coast of Java (Pantura) in
\nwhich Golkar seems to be involved in a fierce competition with
\nthe Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and
\nthe National Awakening Party (PKB).<\/p>\n
* Jayapura, Merauke and Manokwari in Irian Jaya, where locals
\nabhor \"annexation\" by Javanese migrants.<\/p>\n
* Towns which have dynamic economic development, including
\nBalikpapan, East Kalimantan, Medan, North Sumatra and Lampung.
\n(edt)<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/experts-identify-areas-of-possible-future-unrest-1447893297",
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