Experts contend RI population at least 211m

By Hera Diani

JAKARTA (JP): Academics here disputed on Friday the recent results of the national census, arguing that the true count should reflect a total population of at least 211 million and not 203.4 million as announced by the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS).

There was a 7.6 million disparity between projections made by the Demographic Institute at the University of Indonesia's School of Economics and the bureau's tally of 203,456,005.

"We suspect that there are some cases of undercounting in the bureau's calculation," the institute's chairperson Toening Adioetomo told a discussion here.

Toening questioned the low population growth rate in several provinces like Jakarta, West Sumatra, East Java and Maluku which she said were exceptionally low.

In Jakarta, for example, the growth rate declined from 2.43 percent in the last census in 1990 to 0.16 percent while the rate in West Sumatra declined from 1.62 percent to 0.57 percent.

East Java's population growth dropped from 1.08 percent to 0.63 percent while in Maluku it dropped from 2.78 percent to 0.67 percent.

"In Maluku, however, it is understandable because of the social unrest and the displaced persons. But what about other provinces? Was the family planning program that successful in those areas that the growth severely declined?" Toening said.

"It's still questionable."

According to Toening, the institute has been making population projections since 1971 and usually the estimation only differs from the bureau's findings by about half a million to one million people.

The bureau conducts a national population census once every decade and the latest census, conducted in July, was the fifth ever held.

In announcing the results of the latest census, the bureau on Jan. 3 stated that it was provisional as it had only been able to process 98.85 percent of the data usually compiled.

It cited security problems in some areas which resulted in some areas not being able to enumerated such as several districts in Aceh, West Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, Maluku and Irian Jaya.

The bureau also remarked that "under the current nuance of democracy there is greater tolerance for nonresponse" from those about to be enumerated.

Terence H. Hull from the Australian National University Demography Program also said here on Friday that the inaccuracies were due to lack of adjustment factors in the calculation.

Hull said the bureau only inserted adjustments for no enumeration or severe delay in processing, and additions of listing of the homeless, sailors, internally displaced persons or the isolated.

He disclosed that the bureau's actual count result was only 199,792,153, but then it added the adjustments until the official result of 203 million appeared.

"It should've also inserted factors of interviewer failures, errors due to use of the de jure enumeration in context of rising mobility and net loss due to international migration," said Hull, who estimated a national population figure of 207 million.

Hull also suggested that future enumerations should move toward the implementation of a de facto concept of the population and count people according to their usual place of residence as of the enumeration date.

"With de jure method, it is not clear where the person actually lives. It'll raise a problem for the water company, for example, to install its pipes and distribute the water," he added.

The de facto concept, Hull said, would also allow the census to collect full information on homeless people.

BPS trainer Sigede Made Mamas contended that the de facto method is only possible in relatively small countries.

"But in a country as big as Indonesia and consisting of thousands of islands, it's difficult to implement the method," he said.

He also pointed out there was a lack of financial resources to conduct the census.

Some Rp 400 billion was allocated for the census.

Sigede also emphasized that the census result was not final yet as the whole process would be finished around June.

Meanwhile, the head of the bureau's Jakarta office, Masni Rani, also contended that the drop in Jakarta's growth rate in the census result was a reasonable calculation.

She pointed out that various developments had spurred residents to move into the outlying areas outside the main city and into Greater Jakarta.

Her office also found that many residents who now live abroad still own houses here.

"Many retired people have also moved to Greater Jakarta," she added.