Experts contend RI population at least 211m<\/p>\n
By Hera Diani<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Academics here disputed on Friday the recent
\nresults of the national census, arguing that the true count
\nshould reflect a total population of at least 211 million and not
\n203.4 million as announced by the Central Bureau of Statistics
\n(BPS).<\/p>\n
There was a 7.6 million disparity between projections made by
\nthe Demographic Institute at the University of Indonesia's School
\nof Economics and the bureau's tally of 203,456,005.<\/p>\n
"We suspect that there are some cases of undercounting in the
\nbureau's calculation," the institute's chairperson Toening
\nAdioetomo told a discussion here.<\/p>\n
Toening questioned the low population growth rate in several
\nprovinces like Jakarta, West Sumatra, East Java and Maluku which
\nshe said were exceptionally low.<\/p>\n
In Jakarta, for example, the growth rate declined from 2.43
\npercent in the last census in 1990 to 0.16 percent while the rate
\nin West Sumatra declined from 1.62 percent to 0.57 percent.<\/p>\n
East Java's population growth dropped from 1.08 percent to
\n0.63 percent while in Maluku it dropped from 2.78 percent to 0.67
\npercent.<\/p>\n
"In Maluku, however, it is understandable because of the
\nsocial unrest and the displaced persons. But what about other
\nprovinces? Was the family planning program that successful in
\nthose areas that the growth severely declined?" Toening said.<\/p>\n
"It's still questionable."<\/p>\n
According to Toening, the institute has been making population
\nprojections since 1971 and usually the estimation only differs
\nfrom the bureau's findings by about half a million to one million
\npeople.<\/p>\n
The bureau conducts a national population census once every
\ndecade and the latest census, conducted in July, was the fifth
\never held.<\/p>\n
In announcing the results of the latest census, the bureau on
\nJan. 3 stated that it was provisional as it had only been able to
\nprocess 98.85 percent of the data usually compiled.<\/p>\n
It cited security problems in some areas which resulted in
\nsome areas not being able to enumerated such as several districts
\nin Aceh, West Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, Maluku and Irian
\nJaya.<\/p>\n
The bureau also remarked that "under the current nuance of
\ndemocracy there is greater tolerance for nonresponse" from those
\nabout to be enumerated.<\/p>\n
Terence H. Hull from the Australian National University
\nDemography Program also said here on Friday that the inaccuracies
\nwere due to lack of adjustment factors in the calculation.<\/p>\n
Hull said the bureau only inserted adjustments for no
\nenumeration or severe delay in processing, and additions of
\nlisting of the homeless, sailors, internally displaced persons or
\nthe isolated.<\/p>\n
He disclosed that the bureau's actual count result was only
\n199,792,153, but then it added the adjustments until the official
\nresult of 203 million appeared.<\/p>\n
"It should've also inserted factors of interviewer failures,
\nerrors due to use of the de jure enumeration in context of rising
\nmobility and net loss due to international migration," said Hull,
\nwho estimated a national population figure of 207 million.<\/p>\n
Hull also suggested that future enumerations should move
\ntoward the implementation of a de facto concept of the population
\nand count people according to their usual place of residence as
\nof the enumeration date.<\/p>\n
"With de jure method, it is not clear where the person
\nactually lives. It'll raise a problem for the water company, for
\nexample, to install its pipes and distribute the water," he
\nadded.<\/p>\n
The de facto concept, Hull said, would also allow the census
\nto collect full information on homeless people.<\/p>\n
BPS trainer Sigede Made Mamas contended that the de facto
\nmethod is only possible in relatively small countries.<\/p>\n
"But in a country as big as Indonesia and consisting of
\nthousands of islands, it's difficult to implement the method," he
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
He also pointed out there was a lack of financial resources to
\nconduct the census.<\/p>\n
Some Rp 400 billion was allocated for the census.<\/p>\n
Sigede also emphasized that the census result was not final
\nyet as the whole process would be finished around June.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the head of the bureau's Jakarta office, Masni
\nRani, also contended that the drop in Jakarta's growth rate in
\nthe census result was a reasonable calculation.<\/p>\n
She pointed out that various developments had spurred
\nresidents to move into the outlying areas outside the main city
\nand into Greater Jakarta.<\/p>\n
Her office also found that many residents who now live abroad
\nstill own houses here.<\/p>\n
"Many retired people have also moved to Greater Jakarta," she
\nadded.<\/p>",
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