Europe Begins to Doubt NATO, But Not Yet Ready to Stand Alone

The European Union is increasingly pressed to accelerate the development of its own military system following US President Donald Trump’s highlighting of the crisis facing NATO and his encouragement for Europe to become more independent in maintaining its security.

As a political and economic organisation, the European Union was initially formed as a post-war peace project in Europe. However, over the last three decades, its role has significantly shifted towards security and military matters.

Although the push to strengthen defence capabilities is becoming more urgent, several analysts assess that the ambition to form a European Union military force still faces major challenges, particularly in terms of implementation and political readiness.

European Union Military Instruments

This idea was formed in response to growing concerns about threats to the sovereignty of its member states. To date, the European Union has still relied on NATO for defence matters.

NATO itself is a military and political alliance of Western countries comprising the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, and other nations.

However, President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the European NATO member states, which he deems to contribute insufficiently, including in the conflict with Iran, even though the United States bears the bulk of the alliance’s costs.

This stance is driving a change in approach, where the United States no longer wishes to be the primary pillar of European defence.

Although the European Union is beginning to build its own military capacity, NATO remains the backbone of European defence.

In the evolving division of roles, the European Union focuses on low-intensity military missions such as stabilisation and evacuation, while large-scale conflicts remain NATO’s responsibility. This division is based on their respective defence clauses, namely Article 42(7) and Article 5.

European Union 60,000-Troop Target Questioned

Sven Biscop, an analyst at the Egmont Institute think tank, has criticised the European Union’s military plan to form a force of 50,000-60,000 personnel as unrealistic.

“No one will believe that this army corps will be formed,” he said.

As an alternative, the formation of a 5,000-strong Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC) is seen as far more feasible. General Sean Clancy affirmed that this force has undergone intensive training and is ready for deployment.

However, its deployment requires approval from the 27 European Union member states. This demonstrates that the European Union’s military readiness is still hindered by political conditions.

On the other hand, although the RDC is designed for rapid response and has been trained accordingly, this force is not intended to confront large-scale wars. This situation reaffirms that the European Union still cannot detach itself from its dependence on NATO.

Strengths and Weaknesses of the European Union Military

Beyond stabilisation and evacuation missions, the European Union’s military capabilities are also developing, encompassing sea operations, protection of shipping lanes, and military training.

One example is Operation Aspides, the European Union’s naval mission in the Red Sea aimed at protecting ships and intercepting missiles and drones.

This operation, which began in February 2024, has protected around 600 ships. A French warship successfully shot down three ballistic missiles launched by Yemen’s Houthi group, while another missile was intercepted by a German ship. Additionally, around 20 drones were neutralised.

However, this operation has revealed its limitations. At the start of the mission, the German frigate Hessen mistakenly targeted a US drone and fired two expensive SM-2 interceptor missiles but failed to hit the target.

In fact, after the incident, the Hessen chose to avoid the Red Sea, indicating that confidence and operational readiness in facing high-risk conflict zones are not yet optimal.

Military analyst Alex Luck also assessed that this operation has made several European countries aware of the weaknesses in their air defence capabilities, including Denmark and Belgium.

Amid these limitations, there is discourse to expand Aspides’ role to the Strait of Hormuz. However, Johann Wadephul, the German foreign minister, deemed this step unrealistic because the current mission alone is not yet effective.

Moreover, without a ceasefire, the European Union’s military manoeuvrability remains limited, so its capacity is not yet adequate to independently handle high-intensity conflicts.

This situation is prompting the European Union to shift its focus from direct involvement in conflict zones to strengthening long-term structural capacity. One of these is through bolstering the defence industry and improving military mobility.

Strengthen Industry & Military Mobility

The European Union is strengthening its defence capacity without direct involvement in major wars, particularly through the integration of the military industry and procurement efficiency.

Currently, Europe still uses around 12 different types of tanks, so the European Union is encouraging the purchase of defence equipment from within the region to reduce dependence on external parties, although this step has sparked friction with the United States and the United Kingdom.

On the other hand, the European Union relies on its regulatory strength through the “military Schengen” concept, inspired by the Schengen Area, with the aim of reducing cross-border military mobilisation time from more than one month to three days.

This policy will be reinforced with an increase in the military mobility budget by tenfold in the 2028-2034 period.