ESDM: Subsidised Fuel Prices Will Not Increase
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has confirmed that the government will not raise the prices of subsidised fuels. This information was conveyed by the Director General of Oil and Gas, Laode Sulaeman, in response to rumours circulating on social media since Monday afternoon, 30 March 2026, regarding increases in non-subsidised fuel prices.
“The important thing is that there will be no increase for subsidised fuels,” said Laode via written message on Monday, 30 March 2026.
In response to news of rises in subsidised fuels such as Pertamax, Pertamax Dex, and Dexlite, Laode asked the public to await an official announcement from Pertamina on 1 April 2026. He also stated that any increases in non-subsidised fuel prices would follow market mechanisms.
Pertamina responded to the circulating information about non-subsidised fuel price increases. “The information on projected fuel price hikes that is circulating cannot be held accountable,” said Pertamina’s Vice President of Corporate Communication, Muhammad Baron, to Tempo via written message on Monday, 30 March 2026.
Baron stated that as of now, there has been no official announcement regarding fuel prices effective from 1 April 2026. He urged the public to refer only to official information provided through the company’s website.
He also asked the public to wait for Pertamina’s official announcement via the website www.pertamina.com.
In a snippet of a document circulating on social media, it was stated that fuel prices are projected to rise significantly in April 2026, in line with a surge in the Market Price Index (HIP). In the document, the HIP for RON 92 petrol is said to rise by around 62.99 percent, while gasoil (diesel) surges by up to 91.30 percent.
The circulating details also include projections for several products. Pertamax is said to rise from Rp 12,300 to Rp 17,850 per litre. Pertamax Green 95 is projected to rise to Rp 19,150 per litre, and Pertamax Turbo to Rp 19,450 per litre.
The global oil crisis stemming from the Iran-Israel war has caused world oil prices to surge to US$101.47 per barrel as of Monday, 30 March 2026. This increase was triggered by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East entering its fifth week.
“Market players are increasingly pessimistic about the chances of a quick resolution, especially after Iran’s supported Houthi group in Yemen became involved amid additional US troop deployments to the region,” according to analysis from Trading Economics, quoted on Monday, 30 March 2026.
The Houthi group previously launched missile attacks on Israel and stated that such actions would continue as long as attacks on Iran and its allies are not halted. In addition, this group also has the capability to target shipping routes in the Red Sea and strategic energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.
These attacks add new risks to global trade routes, which were previously strained by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for around 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas distribution.
Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), Bhima Yudhistira, assessed that Houthi involvement will further complicate the situation. He reminded that the impact would be much greater if disruptions extend to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which serves as the gateway to the Red Sea and a main route to the Suez Canal.
According to Bhima, around 12 percent of world trade passes through that route because it is the fastest path between Asia, Europe, and Africa. Closure of this route has previously added up to 15 days to shipping times, increased logistics costs, and made it difficult for ships to obtain insurance protection.
Bhima said the impact on Indonesia would be significant, given that exports to Europe reached 13.4 percent of total exports in January 2026.
“If disruptions continue, oil prices could potentially surge to US$120 per barrel, which would accelerate imported inflation, particularly in the food and energy sectors,” said Bhima via written statement on Monday, 30 March 2026.
In addition, Bhima said that the distribution of fertiliser raw materials passing through that route is also at risk of disruption, which could pressure the agricultural sector. Pressure on the rupiah exchange rate could also increase due to weakening exports and rising import costs.
Bhima assessed that the government needs to take immediate mitigation steps. These include diplomatic efforts with Yemen to ensure smooth distribution of Indonesian goods, accelerating budget reallocation for energy and fertiliser subsidies, and adding subsidies for public transport to reduce fuel consumption.
“At least, it would require an additional government expenditure of Rp 515 trillion, assuming that every US$1 increase in oil price per barrel above the state budget assumption adds a burden of Rp 10.3 trillion to government spending,” said Bhima.
He also emphasised the importance of accelerating the energy transition, particularly in the electricity sector, through the development of renewable energy such as solar, micro-hydro, and wind power. These efforts are crucial to reduce dependence on fossil fuels amid global geopolitical uncertainties.