Energy prices rise as Middle East conflict burdens the Dutch economy.
The Hague — Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, energy prices in the Netherlands have surged sharply, prompting several energy suppliers in the country to adjust or withdraw fixed-price energy contracts.
Several research institutions have warned that rising energy costs could weigh on economic growth and push inflation higher in 2026.
The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas futures for April delivery rose 3.27 percent to €50.37 per megawatt-hour on Thursday, 5 March, from €31.96 on Friday, 27 February, last week, representing a 57.6 percent gain over four consecutive trading days.
Fuel prices at filling stations also climbed. Esso Euro95 petrol rose to €2.35 per litre on Thursday, up €0.12 from Friday last week, while Esso diesel rose €0.30 to €2.33 per litre, only €0.04 below the record high recorded in 2022.
The price surge followed heightened geopolitical tensions after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, 28 February, raising concerns about energy supplies from the Middle East.
For now, shipments of key fuels, including LNG from Qatar, crude oil from Saudi Arabia, diesel from Kuwait, and kerosene from the UAE, face increasing uncertainty in global markets. Europe sources much of these fuels from the Middle East.
Facing rapid rises in procurement costs, many Dutch energy suppliers have begun adjusting their contract offers.
Most companies have raised prices for fixed-term contracts, while some have temporarily withdrawn long-term fixed deals to limit exposure to risk.
According to the comparison platform Overstappen.nl, some providers have raised tariffs and reduced cashback incentives for new customers. At the same time, a number of long-term contracts have been removed from their websites.
“This situation reminds us of the early period of the war in Ukraine, when energy prices also spiked sharply. At that time, even for a while it was not possible to sign fixed-price energy contracts,” said Rick Boenink, an energy expert at Overstappen.nl, on Wednesday, 4 March.
These changes have affected household living costs in the Netherlands. According to Overstappen.nl, the average monthly energy cost for a two-person household signing a new fixed-term contract has risen by about €36 in a week.
If last week Dutch households paid around €153 per month, living costs have risen to around €189 per month.
Rabobank, one of the country’s big banks, says higher energy costs are likely to push inflation higher in coming years. The bank projects inflation to average 2.7% in 2026 before easing to 2.1% in 2027.
“This means inflation in 2026 will be around 0.3 percentage points higher than inflation in January 2026, illustrating how geopolitics can influence domestic price pressures,” the report said.
The impact extends beyond direct increases in fuel and electricity bills. Higher energy costs also raise production costs for manufacturers, which are often passed on to consumers through higher prices for food, industrial goods, and other products. The so-called “second-round effect” typically emerges with a lag after energy price shocks.
In the short term, higher energy costs are expected to dampen households’ purchasing power and reduce private consumption. Businesses may also be more cautious in investing given higher operating costs and worsening geopolitical uncertainty.
The magnitude of the economic impact on Europe and the Netherlands will ultimately depend on how long the conflict lasts and how much it escalates, and these factors will determine how long the Dutch economy faces higher energy prices and greater uncertainty, Rabobank added.