Energy Markets Watch Iran–Israel–US Tensions, Oil and Gas Prices Expected to Rise in the Near Term
Jakarta — The conflict involving Iran with Israel and the United States is beginning to spark fresh fears in global energy markets. One of the most highlighted points is the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for world oil shipments, which has been closed by Iran.
Since air strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran began, tanker traffic through the strait has slowed drastically. If this route remains closed for longer, analysts warn its impact could be very large on the global economy, including a surge in oil and fuel prices.
The Strait of Hormuz itself is a giant oil shipping route about 100 miles long and only about 21 miles wide. This narrow passage lies between Iran and the United Arab Emirates and is one of the most vital points in the world’s energy trade.
The Strait of Hormuz is known as the world’s most critical oil shipping route. Many tankers carrying oil from the Middle East to various countries pass through this route every day.
Disruptions in the region could directly affect global energy supplies. If deliveries from the Middle East are disrupted for a long time, world oil prices could surge.
Professor Seth Blumsack from the Penn State Centre for Energy and Law says the situation could trigger an oil price rise in a relatively short time. “If deliveries from the Middle East are disrupted for a long time, we could see oil at around one hundred dollars, i.e. US$100 per barrel, in not too long,” he said, as quoted from Fox KTVU, Thursday, 5 March 2026.
Currently, crude oil prices have begun to rise. On Wednesday, oil prices were around US$76 per barrel, equivalent to Rp1,276,800 per barrel, up about US$15 per barrel or Rp252,000 compared with mid-February.
Although most of the oil used by the US does not come from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of this route could still have wide-ranging effects. This is because around 20 percent of global oil supply passes through the strait. If the route is closed, many countries would struggle to obtain energy supplies, so global oil prices could spike.