Energy Expert from Unpad: Global Oil Prices Could Breach US$130 if US-Iran Conflict Escalates
An energy expert from Universitas Padjajaran (Unpad), Yayan Satyakti, believes global oil prices retain the potential to surge to US$130 per barrel. This increase could occur if the conflict between the United States and Iran, involving Israel, continues to intensify.
According to Yayan, the recent decline in oil prices is not permanent. He explained that the price drop was triggered by the United States releasing additional crude oil supplies onto the global market.
“This oil price decline is caused by the US releasing supplies. It’s quite substantial, which is why prices have fallen, but this is temporary,” Yayan stated on Tuesday (10 March).
Russian media outlet Sputnik reported on 9 March that Brent crude oil prices temporarily reached US$118 per barrel, the highest level since 17 June 2022. This figure is significantly higher than average oil prices in January 2026, when Brent crude (ICE) traded around US$64 per barrel and US WTI hovered near US$57.87 per barrel.
However, on Tuesday, global oil prices declined to the US$80-US$85 per barrel range. This decline followed G7 energy ministers’ discussion of potentially releasing strategic oil reserves collectively to curb price surges, as stated by Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. The oil price decline was also driven by prospects of easing tensions between Iran and the United States. US President Donald Trump stated that military operations against Iran had been “very complete.”
Nevertheless, Iran has stressed it is not yet ready to accept a ceasefire. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that his country would not approve an end to the conflict before the attacking party receives a lesson to prevent repeating military action against Tehran.
According to Yayan, escalating geopolitical tensions could once again drive global oil prices upward. “So the oil price decline is only temporary. Right now, the escalation is actually higher, because Trump will send ground troops to Iran,” Yayan said.
Yayan assessed that US ground troop deployment to Iran could cause infrastructure damage and disrupt global energy supply chains over an unpredictable timeframe. Additionally, large-scale military conflict is expected to persist for a considerable period due to US strategic interests in the region.
“Like the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan, because the US doesn’t want losses. If it’s only 1-2 years, they won’t recoup their investment,” Yayan noted.
In his analysis, Yayan stated that the United States has interests in shifting approximately 20 per cent of the global oil market share from the Middle East region to itself. This approach aims to suppress global oil prices in the mid-to-late 2026 period. According to him, this ambition is also reflected in US military actions against Venezuela in early 2026.
If global oil prices can be suppressed, US supply chain costs will become cheaper and more efficient, thereby benefiting the country’s economy.