Energy Expert Assesses World Oil Prices May Still Rise to 130 US Dollars
Jakarta — Energy expert Yayan Satyakti from Padjadjaran University (Unpad) believes world oil prices still have the potential to rise to 130 US dollars per barrel should the United States-Israel conflict against Iran intensify.
“This price decline is caused by the United States releasing oil supplies. Quite substantially, so prices have fallen, but this is temporary,” said Yayan when contacted by Antara from Jakarta on Tuesday.
According to reports by Sputnik on 9 March, Brent crude oil prices reached 118 US dollars per barrel for the first time since 17 June 2022. This price is higher compared with the average oil price in January 2026, where Brent (ICE) stood at 64 US dollars per barrel, and US WTI at 57.87 US dollars per barrel.
Subsequently, on Tuesday, world oil prices plummeted to the 80–85 US dollar per barrel level after energy ministers from the G7 group discussed the possibility of coordinating strategic petroleum reserve releases amid the oil price surge, as communicated by Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.
The oil price decline also coincided with the potential resolution of the conflict between Iran and the United States, after US President Donald Trump stated that military operations against Iran were “very complete”.
Nevertheless, Iran stated it would not agree to a ceasefire until the attacking party received a lesson to prevent them from contemplating further military action against Tehran, as expressed by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Tuesday.
Yayan believes this tension could cause world oil prices to rise again, potentially touching 130 US dollars per barrel.
“So the oil price decline is only temporary. Now the escalation is actually higher, because Trump will deploy ground troops to Iran,” said Yayan.
Should the United States deploy ground forces to Iran, Yayan stated that infrastructure damage and supply chain networks would be disrupted for an unpredictable duration.
According to Yayan, ground deployment would generate greater impact and the United States would be ambitious about occupying Iran for over one year.
“Like the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan, because the US does not want to lose money. If it’s only 1–2 years, they won’t recoup their investment,” said Yayan.
Based on Yayan’s analysis, the United States has an interest in shifting approximately 20 per cent of Middle Eastern oil markets to the United States. The objective of this shift is to suppress oil prices in the middle or end of 2026.
This ambition was also evident when the United States attacked Venezuela in early 2026.
Lower global oil prices, according to Yayan, could reduce US supply chain costs and improve efficiency.