Energy Crisis Looms: IDX and Rupiah Under Pressure – Will They Rally or Collapse?

Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to remain under pressure today. For a fuller projection of today’s market, see page 3 of this article.

The IDX closed at 7,164.09 during yesterday’s trading on Thursday (26/3/2026), down 1.89% or -138.03 points in a single day.

Earlier on Wednesday, Iranian state media reported that the country would reject the US ceasefire offer and had outlined its own conditions to end the war.

From the US stock market, Wall Street tumbled across the board during Thursday’s trading, or early Friday Indonesian time.

The S&P index fell 1.74% to close at 6,477.16, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.38% to 21,408.08. The technology-heavy index has now entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its peak. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 469.38 points or 1.01% to 45,960.11.

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday, putting pressure on stock markets. Brent crude futures surged 5.66% to US$108.01 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 4.61% to US$94.48.

As stocks weakened again and oil prices strengthened, yields on the US government’s 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds both jumped.

In response to the oil price surge, US President Donald Trump stated that the spike and market pressures were not as bad as he had anticipated.

Earlier on Thursday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran “must get serious soon before it’s too late, because if that happens, THERE IS NO WAY BACK, and the outcome will not be pretty.”

He also described Iranian negotiators as very different and strange, claiming they were begging the US to reach a deal to end the war now in its fourth week.

This statement came after Iran’s Foreign Minister was reported to have told state media on Wednesday that Iran’s top authorities were reviewing the US proposal to end the war, but Tehran had no intention of holding talks with Washington.

Meanwhile, Gulf states issued a joint statement on Thursday condemning Iran’s “criminal” attacks from Iraqi territory on their energy infrastructure. They also affirmed their readiness to defend themselves going forward.

“We value our fraternal relations with the Republic of Iraq, but we urge the Iraqi government to take the necessary steps to immediately stop attacks … against neighbouring countries,” the statement said, quoted from CNBC International.

“This is a fairly complacent market, in the sense that investors remain optimistic and willing to absorb bad news,” Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management, told CNBC.

Tobin Marcus, head of US policy and politics at Wolfe Research, assessed that the latest market movements indicate investors are betting that Iran may not be entirely honest.

The market seems to conclude that Iran’s negative public messages might just be camouflage for a more compromising private stance.

Movements in Indonesia’s financial markets appear likely to remain volatile this weekend, on Friday (27/3/2026).

Talks of a ceasefire between the US-Israel and Iran remain murky; the optimism that emerged on Wednesday now seems to be fading.

Market players are now more focused on the real impacts spreading to stakeholders’ policies, industries, and real economies in various countries, especially after the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Here are some updates and data still awaited by the market that could potentially influence today’s movements:

Update on the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Market hopes for a ceasefire are fading as both sides maintain hardline positions.

Iran launched a new wave of missiles, while the US pushes a peace proposal including restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme and greater control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Since early March 2026, tensions between Iran and the US and its allies have triggered serious disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy shipping route.

Around 20 million barrels of oil per day, nearly 20% of global consumption, typically pass through this strait. When this route is disrupted, the effects ripple through global energy markets within days, not weeks.

Asia is the region feeling the impact most quickly due to high dependence on energy imports from the Middle East.

Several countries are starting to feel the pressure as their energy reserves are relatively limited.

The Philippines became the first country to declare an energy emergency. Their fuel stocks are down to about 45 days (as of 25-26 March 2026). Many petrol stations have closed, fuel prices have skyrocketed, and public transport is limited.

As a result, thousands of residents in Manila and other cities have been forced to walk to work to save fuel. Videos of groups walking have gone viral on social media.

The government there is also promoting a four-day workweek and temporarily relaxing fuel standards to conserve supplies. For context, the Philippines imports 90% of its oil needs, so it is hit the fastest.

In Pakistan, oil reserves are estimated to last only about 15-20 days, while Bangladesh has a buffer of around 20-25 days.

Vietnam is in a similar range, with about 20 days of reserves. With such narrow breathing room, supply disruptions or energy price spikes could quickly trigger economic pressures, from energy rationing to rising production costs.

India was recently reported to have only nine days of energy reserves, but this figure actually refers only to strategic petroleum reserves.

When combined with commercial stocks held by energy companies, India’s total oil reserves are estimated to be sufficient for about 60 to 70 days of consumption.

What is more vulnerable is LPG supplies, as most shipments come from the Middle East and pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Indonesia itself is relatively safe for now. National fuel reserves