El Niño Alert, Farmers Rush to Plant and Swap Rice Seed Varieties, Choose Palawija
El Niño Alert, Farmers Rush to Plant and Swap Rice Seed Varieties, Choose Palawija
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The prediction by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) regarding the potential El Niño and an earlier dry season in 2026 could suppress national rice production. Production declines could reach 10% to 20%, especially in areas reliant on rainfed land.
Kusnan, Chairman of the Assessment and Application of Agroecology and Seedlings of the Indonesian Farmers Union (SPI), said farmers have begun taking various precautionary steps after BMKG predicted that around 46.5% of Indonesia would experience an earlier dry season, starting in April.
‘We respond to this forecast with high vigilance but remain calm. BMKG says about 46.5% of Indonesia will experience an earlier dry season, some starting as early as April. This is an alarm for us to accelerate planting while there is still rainfall in March,’ Kusnan told CNBC Indonesia on Friday (6 March 2026).
According to him, accelerating planting times is one of the main strategies so that rice crops do not suffer drought damage during the peak dry season.
‘With accelerated planting, farmers who usually plant in late April must start in early March to ensure that by August peak dry season, rice is already in the harvest phase or at least has passed the vegetative phase that requires a lot of water,’ he explained.
In addition to accelerating planting, farmers are also beginning to prepare alternative planting patterns, particularly in rainfed areas.
‘Alternative planting patterns in several rainfed lands, we are advising farmers not to force rice in the second cropping season (MT II) if water availability is doubtful, and switch to palawija which uses less water,’ he said.
As for the conditions of reservoirs and embung (water storage), Kusnan said they remain relatively safe at present. However, water management must be conducted with discipline to anticipate a possibly longer dry season.
‘So far, the conditions of main reservoirs and embung are still in the ’sufficiently safe’ category, but we must be very disciplined in water rotation or distribution management. The challenge is that if the dry season lasts longer, more than six months, then the discharge of water in tertiary irrigation channels will usually decrease drastically,’ he said.
To anticipate lower water discharge, farmers are also ensuring readiness of water pumps at the farmer group level.
‘We are ensuring irrigation pumps at the farmer group level are in prime condition to withdraw water from surface rivers,’ he added.
Nevertheless, Kusnan warned that production declines could still occur if the dry season lasts longer than normal.
‘If a longer dry season occurs, drier than normal, the potential production decline could range from 10% to 20% in areas without technical irrigated rainfed systems. However, for areas with technical irrigation, we are striving to keep declines to no more than 5% through technology interventions and strict water management using bore wells with diesel-powered pumps or siphons,’ he explained.
As an adaptation measure, farmers are also optimising the use of rice varieties that are more drought-tolerant.
‘Yes, there are instructions to optimise drought-tolerant varieties or Gogo Sawah. Some varieties that remain the mainstay include Inpari 42 and Inpari 32. They remain popular due to their resilience,’ Kusnan said.
In addition, varieties with earlier harvest times are being encouraged so crops can be harvested before the drought reaches its peak.
‘We are also promoting the use of Genjah varieties with shorter harvest times of under 100 days so they can be harvested before water runs out completely, such as Padi SPI 20 and SPI 21 which we have developed as very early-harvest varieties of 75 and 85 days and drought-tolerant,’ he said.
Although farmers have taken various precautions, Kusnan believes government support remains necessary to minimise the impact of drought on food production.
‘Increased assistance with water pumps and repair of leaky canals are crucial,’ he said.
Furthermore, distribution of agricultural production facilities must be ensured on time.
‘Ensure drought-tolerant seeds are available at official kiosks before the planting season arrives,’ he urged.
He also hopes the government can optimise the agricultural insurance programme to protect farmers from the risk of crop failure.
‘We hope the government will facilitate the claims process for insurance in the event of crop failure (puso) due to drought, so that farmers have capital to replant in the next season,’ Kusnan concluded.
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