El Niño 2026 Worse Than 1877? BRIN Researcher: Don't Panic Yet, The Data Speaks Differently
Claims that El Niño 2026 will surpass the greatest climate disasters in human history are circulating. A Senior Principal Researcher at BRIN’s Centre for Climate and Atmospheric Research examines the claim based on data. Quoted by Kompas.com from Al Jazeera, several researchers and world meteorological agencies warn that the forming El Niño phase is potentially one of the strongest in history, triggering volatility and heavy pressure on global economic and food stability.
Based on historical records, the impacts of high‑intensity El Niño have changed the course of human civilization, from political crises in ancient Egypt, the collapse of the Moche civilisation in Peru about 1,000 years ago, to triggering crop failures contributing to the French Revolution in the late 18th century.
One dark record occurred in 1877–1878, when a powerful Super El Niño triggered famine in tropical regions and killed tens of millions.
Some predictive models show potential increases in sea surface temperature of up to 3 degrees Celsius, a figure never before seen.
But hold on. The Senior Principal Researcher at BRIN’s Centre for Climate and Atmosphere Research, Eddy Hermawan, has a different reading. He urges the public not to panic.
“If the data are that high, frankly I don’t know the source,” he told Kompas.com by telephone on Friday (22 May 2026).
“Official bodies like the Climate Prediction Center don’t even have data up to that year. The furthest is, on average, only up to 1950.”
This is not about doubting science as a whole. Eddy simply reminds that the record from 1877 stems from an era with limited observations, so the level of uncertainty is quite high.
He also touched on one aspect often overlooked in this debate: Earth’s conditions in the 19th century were very different from today.
“In 1877, crops were green, the sea was good, there was no damage everywhere. Emissions may have been zero. Do not compare with today; environmental damage and emissions are everywhere.”
To understand why El Niño 2026 may not be as severe as forecast, Eddy explains two main conditions that must be met for an El Niño to be called extreme. In popular terms, this phenomenon is often nicknamed “El Niño Godzilla.”
To be called El Niño Godzilla, the two conditions are: It refers to the two strongest El Niño events in the modern era, each recording an increase in the Nino 3.4 temperature up to 2.4 degrees Celsius at its peak.