Eid al-Fitr amid shadows of war: What impact will it have on Indonesia?

Jakarta – Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijriah in 2026 is expected to take place amid an uncertain global situation caused by conflict in the Middle East.

An economist from the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), Hakam Naja, believes that the war involving Iran against Israel and the United States has the potential to deliver considerable economic impacts over a lengthy period, including for Indonesia.

According to Hakam, this global situation coincides with the momentum of the Eid holiday migration (mudik) which this year is projected to experience a decline.

Based on data from Indonesia’s Ministry of Transportation, the number of holidaymakers is estimated at approximately one million people, or about 50.60 per cent of Indonesia’s population.

“This figure of holidaymakers has declined by approximately 1.75 per cent from the survey and dropped 6.55 per cent compared to the realisation of the 2025 holiday migration,” Hakam said in a written statement on Monday (16 March 2026).

He believes the decline is inseparable from weakened purchasing power among the public amid global economic uncertainty. The socio-economic conditions of society are also reflected in inflation developments. Data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded monthly inflation of 0.68 per cent in February 2026, reversing from deflation of 0.15 per cent in January 2026.

Additionally, the rupiah exchange rate, which has breached Rp17,000 per US dollar, is also higher than the assumption in the 2026 state budget (APBN), which is in the range of Rp16,500. According to Hakam, rupiah weakness has the potential to drive up prices of imported goods, including foodstuffs, oil, and gas.