Eid al-Fitr 2026 likely to be observed on different dates; crescent elongation still below MABIMS standard

The Islamic Affairs Ministry’s Director of Islamic Affairs, Arsad Hidayat, has stated that astronomical calculations for the end-of-Ramadhan crescent moon do not meet the crescent visibility criteria established by MABIMS member nations (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore).

“Based on astronomical calculations, the crescent elevation is approximately 0 to 3 degrees, with the highest position over the Aceh region. The elongation measures 4 to 6 degrees,” Arsad said during a press briefing in Jakarta on Monday.

Under MABIMS standards, the crescent must reach a minimum elevation of 3 degrees and an elongation of 6.4 degrees. Although the crescent’s elevation may potentially meet requirements, the elongation still falls short of the minimum threshold set out in the MABIMS version of the imkan rukyat criteria.

Consequently, the government’s determination of 1 Syawal 1447 Hijriah (Eid al-Fitr 2026) is likely to differ from that of Muhammadiyah, similar to the recent determination of the start of Ramadhan.

Nevertheless, Arsad emphasised that the final decision for 1 Syawal 1447 Hijriah or Eid al-Fitr 2026 remains pending the results of the isbat session to be held by the government through the Islamic Affairs Ministry.

“The final decision will await the outcome of the isbat session scheduled for 19 March 2026,” he stated.

Muhammadiyah has already announced that 1 Syawal 1447 Hijriah will fall on Friday, 20 March 2026, based on the Global Single Hijriah Calendar (KHGT).

However, according to the government’s astronomical and sighting calculations adhering to MABIMS standards, the crescent’s position at sunset on 19 March 2026 across Southeast Asia does not meet MABIMS criteria. Therefore, under government calculations, 1 Syawal would fall on 21 March 2026.