Economist: THR and Ojol bonuses spur Q1 economic growth

Jakarta — The distribution of the Tunjangan Hari Raya (THR) and Bonus Hari Raya (BHR) in 2026 is expected to provide a boost to economic growth in the first quarter of the year. Banjaran Surya Indrastomo, Chief Economist of PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk, believes that THR disbursements for civil servants and private-sector workers, along with bonuses for online ride-hailing drivers (Ojol), will inject substantial liquidity into the economy as Eid approaches. The government has prepared an THR budget for civil servants of around Rp55 trillion. THR for private-sector workers is projected to reach Rp124 trillion. Meanwhile, the Raya bonus for online drivers is estimated at around Rp220 billion. The total funds flowing to the public from these three components are projected to be around Rp179.22 trillion. “We estimate the multiplier effect of the THR distribution and BHR will raise economic growth in Q1-2026 by between 0.3 and 0.8 percentage points,” Banjaran told Kompas.com on Friday (6 March 2026). According to Banjaran, price stability, especially for food commodities, remains important to ensure the stimulus impact is optimal. Food prices tend to rise during Ramadan, but remain at a relatively controlled level. “Therefore, it is important to keep monitoring inflation so that the stimulus provided truly adds value to national economic growth,” he said. He also noted that the THR increase is still eroded by inflation that is relatively higher during this Ramadan period. Overall inflation in February 2026 was 4.76% year-on-year, while volatile food inflation was around 4%. “That means the THR increase is still eroded by inflation that is relatively higher than in the previous Lebaran moment,” Bhima said. He also highlighted the potential rise in energy inflation after Eid in line with global geopolitical tensions. “We do not know when disruptions to world oil distribution will end. But post-Eid, fuel expenditure is at risk of rising, coinciding with the new academic year,” Bhima said.