Economist Reveals True Price of Pertamax Fuel, Pertamina Must Bear This Much

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The price of non-subsidised fuel oil (BBM) type Pertamax (RON 92), currently capped at Rp12,300 per litre, is still considered below its economic price.

Economist from the Center of Reform on Economic (CORE) Indonesia, Yusuf Rendy Manilet, explained that the economic price of Pertamax fuel truly depends on two main factors: global oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar.

According to him, with world oil prices still in the range of US$80-90 per barrel, and the rupiah exchange rate above Rp15,500 per US dollar, the current economic price of Pertamax is estimated to be in the range of Rp14,500 to Rp15,500 per litre.

“With the current conditions where oil prices are still relatively high at around 80-90 US dollars per barrel and the rupiah above Rp15,500, roughly the economic price of Pertamax is in the range of Rp14,500 to Rp15,500 per litre,” Yusuf told CNBC Indonesia on Thursday (2/4/2026).

Meanwhile, the selling price of Pertamina’s Pertamax fuel product is still priced at Rp12,300 per litre. This means there is a difference of around Rp2,200 to Rp3,200 per litre compared to its economic price.

According to him, this difference essentially does not disappear but shifts to become a burden. In the short term, it is usually absorbed by the business entity.

“In this case, Pertamina’s margins are squeezed, and if the gap widens or persists for a long time, it ultimately has the potential to enter as a fiscal burden through a compensation scheme,” he said.

He explained that this is where the policy dilemma lies, where holding prices does help maintain purchasing power and curb inflation, especially amid global uncertainties. However, if it lasts too long, the risks will start to accumulate.

Separately, Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), Bhima Yudhistira, estimated the economic price of non-subsidised BBM for Pertamax at Rp18,740 per litre. Meanwhile, for Pertamina Dex, it is estimated at Rp25,560 per litre.

Thus, there is a significant difference between the selling price and the economic price. For Pertamax, the difference is around Rp6,440 per litre, while for Pertamina Dex it is Rp11,060 per litre.

“The economic price of non-subsidised BBM is at Rp18,740 per litre for RON 92. Meanwhile, Pertamina Dex is at Rp25,560 per litre. The difference means the government bears compensation for RON 92 of Rp6,440 per litre and Dex Rp11,060 per litre,” said Bhima.

Bhima assessed that this difference ultimately has the potential to enter the government’s compensation scheme. This condition risks adding pressure to the state revenue and expenditure budget (APBN).

“Purbaya says energy subsidies are swelling by Rp100 trillion, but adding non-subsidised BBM compensation, the needs are estimated to be above Rp130-150 trillion,” he said.

Previously, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa revealed that fuel prices in Indonesia, which are still being held despite fluctuations in global crude oil prices, will not yet drain the energy subsidy and compensation budget in the 2026 APBN.

He said that for now, the unchanged fuel prices are fully borne by PT Pertamina (Persero).

“For the time being, it seems Pertamina is bearing it, for now,” Purbaya said when met at Wisma Danantara, Jakarta, on Wednesday (1/4/2026).

Purbaya explained that Pertamina’s liquidity now has more room to face oil price pressures because the government has been paying subsidy and compensation arrears more quickly.

“It can because now payments from the government are smooth, and we pay compensation every month at 70% continuously,” Purbaya revealed.

“So Pertamina’s finances are very good, absorbing that for a short period is no problem,” he emphasised.

On the other hand, he revealed that the government plans to allocate additional budget for energy subsidy expenditure of Rp90 trillion - Rp100 trillion this year.

This addition is an effort to anticipate rising volatile oil prices due to global uncertainties. As known, the government is not raising fuel oil (BBM) prices, both subsidised and non-subsidised.

“Yes, around (Rp90-100), we’ll calculate again. That’s just subsidies,” Purbaya said.

Unfortunately, Purbaya did not detail where the budget comes from. He only said, “Our country’s financial condition is very good. I have plenty of buffers.”

Based on information up to the end of February 2026, the value of subsidy and compensation expenditure reached Rp51.5 trillion, or equivalent to 11.5% of the 2026 APBN target. This value actually jumped 382.5% compared to February 2025.

The value of this expenditure consists of a rapid increase in compensation expenditure reaching Rp44.1 trillion, while subsidy expenditure is only Rp7.4 trillion or lower than the record for the same period last year of Rp10.7 trillion.

Overall, the realisation of this subsidy and compensation expenditure is also influenced by fluctuations in Indonesia Crude Price (ICP), rupiah exchange rate depreciation, and increased consumption volume of BBM, LPG, and electricity.