Economist Highlights Indonesia's Debt Burden, DSR Deemed More Important than GDP Ratio

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — Economist from the Bright Institute, Awalil Rizky, has reminded the government not to rely solely on the debt-to-Gross Domestic Product ratio. He assesses that this indicator does not yet reflect the real pressure on the fiscal situation. By the end of 2025, government debt is recorded at Rp9,638 trillion. The gross domestic product reaches Rp23,825 trillion. The debt-to-GDP ratio is at 40.46 percent. However, Awalil considers the ratio to national revenue more relevant. National revenue in 2025 is recorded at Rp2,756.3 trillion. With that figure, the debt-to-revenue ratio reaches around 349.96 percent. “The more important indicator to monitor is the debt service burden ratio to national revenue or DSR,” Awalil wrote in a statement on Wednesday (18/3/2026). Fitch Ratings also highlights Indonesia’s interest debt burden. Its value is around 17 percent of total government revenue. This assessment is one of the factors in the change of Indonesia’s credit outlook to negative. If principal debt repayment of Rp800 trillion is added, the total debt burden reaches Rp1,314 trillion. With that calculation, Indonesia’s DSR is estimated at 47.46 percent. Awalil also highlights the primary balance that is still in deficit of Rp180.7 trillion. Risks come from geopolitical conflicts and oil price volatility. The government previously opened the possibility of widening the deficit. In the worst-case scenario, the deficit has the potential to exceed 4 percent of GDP. This condition will increase debt financing needs. Issuance of Government Securities is estimated to increase as well.