Economist: Current Economic Conditions Not a Crisis Signal

The weakening of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar and the slump in the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) have sparked public concern regarding the national economic condition. An economist has reminded the public that there is no need to panic, as a number of macro indicators show the Indonesian economy remains quite strong and is not heading towards a crisis. Chief Economist of Bank Permata, Josua Pardede, stated that the current depreciation of the rupiah is more influenced by external factors, such as high interest rate policies in advanced countries and global geopolitical uncertainty. ‘What needs to be understood is that the current condition is an adjustment phase to global dynamics, not a crisis signal,’ Josua said at the Komunita Economic Talk event titled Reading the Challenges and Opportunities of the Indonesian Economy Today, in Jakarta, Friday (5/6/2026). Josua explained that a number of national economic indicators still demonstrate resilience amidst global pressures. Inflation in May 2026 was recorded at 3.08 per cent annually, still within Bank Indonesia’s target range. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves as of April reached 146.2 billion US dollars, equivalent to 5.8 months of imports, well above the international adequacy standard of around three months of imports. These foreign exchange reserves serve as an important buffer in maintaining economic stability and the rupiah exchange rate. In terms of economic growth, Indonesia recorded growth of 5.61 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. This figure represents the fastest growth rate in more than three years. Growth was supported by household consumption which grew by 5.52 per cent as well as investment which remained strong at 5.96 per cent. As for the financial sector, banking resilience remains strong with a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 25.83 per cent and a gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of only 2.17 per cent.