Economist: Current Economic Conditions Not a Crisis Signal

The weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar and the slump in the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) have triggered public concern regarding the national economic condition. Economists have warned the public against panicking, noting that several macro indicators show Indonesia’s economy remains sufficiently strong and is not heading towards a crisis.

Bank Permata Chief Economist Josua Pardede stated that the current rupiah depreciation is more heavily influenced by external factors, such as high interest rate policies in developed nations and global geopolitical uncertainty.

“What needs to be understood is that the current condition is a phase of adjustment to global dynamics, not a signal of crisis,” Josua said during the Komunita Economic Talk event titled ‘Reading the Challenges and Opportunities of Indonesia’s Economy Today’ in Jakarta, Friday (5/6/2026).

Josua explained that several national economic indicators still demonstrate resilience amidst global pressures. Inflation in May 2026 was recorded at 3.08 per cent annually, remaining within Bank Indonesia’s target range.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves as of April reached US$146.2 billion, equivalent to 5.8 months of imports, well above the international adequacy standard of approximately three months of imports. These reserves serve as a vital buffer in maintaining economic stability and the rupiah exchange rate.

In terms of economic growth, Indonesia recorded a growth rate of 5.61 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. This figure represents the fastest growth rate in over three years, supported by household consumption growing at 5.52 per cent and investment remaining strong at 5.96 per cent.

From the financial sector perspective, banking resilience remains strong, with a Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 25.83 per cent and a gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio of only 2.17 per cent.