Economist: Bank Indonesia's Aggressive Intervention Holds Exchange Rate Near Rp17,000
Jakarta (ANTARA) — Myrdal Gunarto, Global Markets Economist at Maybank Indonesia, believes the rupiah still has potential to weaken, but its movement is expected to remain near Rp17,000 per US dollar, provided that Bank Indonesia (BI) implements aggressive intervention.
“It should be able to be maintained below Rp17,000, provided that the intervention is indeed aggressive,” said Myrdal when contacted in Jakarta on Monday.
The recent movement of the rupiah has been influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States-Israel coalition.
Gunarto added that Indonesia’s central bank also needs to consider the sustainability of foreign exchange reserves when conducting intervention in the foreign exchange market, although the overall condition of foreign exchange reserves is considered sufficiently strong to dampen pressure on the rupiah.
According to him, the potential outflow of foreign capital from the stock market is relatively limited. Meanwhile, foreign investor ownership in the government securities market and Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI) instruments is also considered manageable.
These conditions suggest that pressure on foreign exchange reserves for intervention in the foreign exchange market is expected to be relatively limited.
Nevertheless, Myrdal warned that foreign exchange reserves remain dependent on foreign currency inflows from the real sector, particularly through exports and foreign direct investment (FDI).
For this reason, the government is considered to need to monitor export performance to various major destination countries such as the ASEAN region, Asian countries, and the United States to ensure foreign currency flows remain steady.
“If we look at the potential outflow in the stock market or the government securities market, our foreign exchange reserves should be safe, as long as we continue to receive flows from exports and from FDI,” said Myrdal.
Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserve position at the end of February 2026 stood at 151.9 billion US dollars, declining compared to the end of January 2026 position of 154.6 billion US dollars.
Bank Indonesia noted that the development of foreign exchange reserves was influenced by tax and service receipts as well as withdrawals of government external loans.
This situation occurred amid government external debt payments and the central bank’s exchange rate stabilisation policy for the rupiah in response to the persistent high uncertainty in global financial markets.
Despite the decline, BI assured that the foreign exchange reserve position at the end of February 2026 was equivalent to six months and one month of import financing or 5.9 months of imports and government external debt payments, and remained above the international adequacy standard of approximately three months of imports.
The central bank also assessed that the foreign exchange reserves were capable of supporting the resilience of the external sector and maintaining macroeconomic stability and financial system integrity.
The rupiah exchange rate in the spot market touched Rp17,010 per US dollar during Monday morning trading, before strengthening to around Rp16,900 during the afternoon session.