Economist assesses Eid 2026 consumption as likely to be restrained

Economist from Paramadina University, Wijayanto Samirin, assesses that public consumption during the Eid 2026 period is likely to be restrained, reflecting the public’s cautious stance amid economic uncertainties. This indication, according to Wijayanto, is evident from the decline in the number of holiday travellers and hotel occupancy rates in several tourist destinations compared to the previous Eid period. “From the reduced number of holiday travellers and declining hotel occupancy rates in several cities (including Yogyakarta), it is clear that the public is being very careful with their spending this time,” Wijayanto stated when contacted by ANTARA in Jakarta on Thursday. According to him, this situation shows that public consumption during this year’s Eid is more selective. Additionally, the Bank Indonesia survey reinforces this indication. In February 2026, the public was recorded as spending only around 72% of their income, with 11% used for instalment payments and about 17% saved. “The proportion saved is among the highest post-COVID-19, while the portions for consumption and instalment payments are the lowest. This shows that our society is very cautious at present, worried about their income prospects in the future,” he explained. Nevertheless, Wijayanto views the Eid momentum as still contributing to the national economy, particularly in the first quarter of 2026. He notes that almost all the economic impact from this year’s holiday travel and Eid activities is absorbed in the first quarter, while the carryover effects into the second quarter are relatively limited. “This is dominated by spending by local communities receiving funds from holiday travellers,” he said. Furthermore, he explains that the circulation of money during Eid still plays a role in promoting economic distribution in the regions. It is estimated that around Rp135 trillion to Rp145 trillion in funds spent by holiday travellers will flow to the regions, either in the form of direct consumption or transfers to families. However, he warns of the potential for economic slowdown in the post-Eid period. This comes as the seasonal consumption boost ends, along with several external and domestic risks. According to him, economic growth in the second to fourth quarters of 2026 could be more moderate. This is influenced, among others, by the end of the Eid effect, potential disruptions to food production due to El Niño, increases in fuel prices, and import inflation pressures from rupiah depreciation. “Starting from the third quarter of 2026, I estimate that most regional governments will face funding difficulties due to cuts in transfer funds, which will erode the role of regions as engines of economic growth,” he added.