Economic Potential of 2026 Mudik to Reach Rp417 Trillion, Middle Class as Main Driver

The research institute Institute for Demographic and Affluence Studies (IDEAS) estimates that the economic potential of mudik during Ramadan 2026 could reach Rp347.67 trillion in a moderate scenario and up to Rp417.20 trillion in an optimistic one. This projection underscores the role of mudik as one of the largest consumption moments in Indonesia’s annual economic cycle. IDEAS researcher Agung Pardini stated that the calculation uses a decile-based approach to map consumer behaviour. This method divides the population into ten groups based on expenditure levels, providing a more detailed picture of mudik participation and its economic impact. Assuming Indonesia’s population is around 281 million people, IDEAS estimates that about half of the population will undertake mudik journeys. However, participation rates are uneven, influenced by economic capacity, with the lowest decile group at around 40 per cent and the highest at up to 60 per cent. “The higher the income level, the greater the chance for someone to participate in mudik. This reflects that mudik is not only a social tradition but also an economic activity heavily influenced by purchasing power,” said Agung in a written statement on Thursday (19/3/2026). From the expenditure side, disparities between groups are stark. The average monthly expenditure between the lowest and highest groups differs by nearly tenfold, but in the context of mudik, low-income groups allocate a larger proportion of their expenditure. The lower groups spend around 200 per cent of their monthly consumption on mudik, while the upper groups spend about 120 per cent. This situation indicates a heavier economic burden on low-income communities, even though their nominal spending is smaller. “Lower groups tend to have to sacrifice a much larger portion of their income to mudik. Nominally, they spend less, but the economic burden is heavier,” said Agung. Nevertheless, the largest contribution to the total mudik economic turnover still comes from the middle to upper groups. In the moderate scenario, deciles 6 to 10 serve as the main pillars, affirming the dominance of the middle class in the national consumption structure. These findings show that the strength of the mudik economy is not only determined by the number of travellers but also by purchasing power. The middle class is key because it has substantial spending capacity as well as a significant population size.