E. Timor tragedy plays key role in Portugal poll

E. Timor tragedy plays key role in Portugal poll

By Richard Waddington

LISBON (Reuters): If Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Guterres betters his performance of four years ago, and wins an outright parliamentary majority in Sunday's election, he may have the long-suffering people of East Timor to thank.

Even amongst his political opponents, there are few who doubt that the wily, fast-talking prime minister's Socialist Party will be returned to power as the largest party in the Oct. 10 ballot.

But there have been doubts about whether -- despite a booming economy -- voters were ready to give Guterres full control of parliament, where he is currently four seats short of an absolute majority in the 230-seat chamber.

For months, opinion polls have put the Socialists well ahead of the conservative Social Democratic Party (PSD), their main rivals.

But they offered no guarantee that Guterres' much-desired absolute majority will be attained, once votes for the Communists and the small, right-wing Popular Party were included.

The cautious Portuguese had apparently come to like a system of minority government where the party in power was forced to debate and negotiate with the other groups in parliament.

However, these political calculations were upset by the scenes early in September of mayhem in Portugal's former colony of East Timor, where the people had voted for independence from Indonesia after 23 years of often brutal rule.

The violence of the pro-Jakarta militias, bent on reversing what had been an overwhelming vote for statehood, deeply shocked the Portuguese. It triggered demonstrations of a size and emotional intensity not seen since the turbulent days of Portugal's 1974 revolution.

People from all walks of life and political allegiance took to the streets, united in their support for the East Timorese.

Although Australian-led troops are slowly restoring order to the Pacific territory, the events in East Timor continue to dominate national attention, eclipsing the election campaign.

For two days late last week, the official hustings were effectively suspended as Portugal gave a hero's welcome to Xanana Gusmao, the former anti-Indonesia guerrilla fighter who heads the independence movement in East Timor.

"Timor is ending up being a tremendously unifying force," said political analyst Vicente Jorge Silva, former editor of the Lisbon daily O Publico. "And it is obvious that it is the government that benefits most, politically," he added.

Opposition campaign leaders complain that voters are now in little mood to hear criticism of the ruling party.

Political jibes against Guterres and his government, part of the usual give-and-take of political campaigning, risk sounding anti-patriotic, such is the strength of feeling generated by the Timor issue, they say.

"The people are united behind a national cause and that is clearly benefiting the Socialists," one senior PSD campaign official told Reuters.

Guterres has been hammering home his advantage, trying to get out the extra votes to ensure he reaches the magic 116-seat figure in parliament.

But even so he has had to tread carefully, avoiding calling openly for an "absolute majority" because the phrase has turned into something of a political taboo, with echoes of authoritarianism and arrogance, analysts say.

The Socialist leader, the first of the new generation of center-left leaders in western Europe to come up for re-election, says he needs strong parliamentary backing to push through needed, but controversial reforms in areas such as the health and pension systems and tax policy.

He has warned that another minority government could lead to a period of political instability, with opposition parties poised to take the first opportunity to bring him down.

The Social Democrats abstained on the last three budgets presented by the government because the country was seeking to make the grade for the European single currency, a goal shared by the conservative opposition.

But with Portugal safely inside monetary union from the beginning of 1999, this restraint no longer existed, Guterres has warned. "It would be different this time," he told Reuters television recently.

But analysts dismiss the political instability argument as electioneering, arguing that there is very little ideologically to separate the Socialists from the Social Democrats.

"You need a microscope to find any differences," said Jorge Silva.

The Socialists have privatised more state sector companies than the Social Democrat government they replaced and have done little to upset the business community during their four years in power.

Even without East Timor, this is an election that the Socialists had long looked certain to win, analysts say.

The economy is growing at one of the fastest rates in Europe, fueling the "feel-good" factor of Portugal's burgeoning middle class.

With entry into the European single currency, interest rates have tumbled, helping to finance a consumer boom and triggering a surge in the housing market as mortgage costs drop.

As if that were not enough, the main opposition party is still in disarray after having been forced to change its leader in May in a row over an alliance with the Popular Party.

Analysts say that new party leader Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, a former foreign minister, has proved no match so far for Guterres in political debate.

"Basically, people look around the political scene and see no reason to make any change. And they won't," Jorge Silva said.