E. Timor tragedy plays key role in Portugal poll<\/p>\n
By Richard Waddington<\/p>\n
LISBON (Reuters): If Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio
\nGuterres betters his performance of four years ago, and wins an
\noutright parliamentary majority in Sunday's election, he may have
\nthe long-suffering people of East Timor to thank.<\/p>\n
Even amongst his political opponents, there are few who doubt
\nthat the wily, fast-talking prime minister's Socialist Party will
\nbe returned to power as the largest party in the Oct. 10 ballot.<\/p>\n
But there have been doubts about whether -- despite a booming
\neconomy -- voters were ready to give Guterres full control of
\nparliament, where he is currently four seats short of an absolute
\nmajority in the 230-seat chamber.<\/p>\n
For months, opinion polls have put the Socialists well ahead
\nof the conservative Social Democratic Party (PSD), their main
\nrivals.<\/p>\n
But they offered no guarantee that Guterres' much-desired
\nabsolute majority will be attained, once votes for the Communists
\nand the small, right-wing Popular Party were included.<\/p>\n
The cautious Portuguese had apparently come to like a system
\nof minority government where the party in power was forced to
\ndebate and negotiate with the other groups in parliament.<\/p>\n
However, these political calculations were upset by the scenes
\nearly in September of mayhem in Portugal's former colony of East
\nTimor, where the people had voted for independence from Indonesia
\nafter 23 years of often brutal rule.<\/p>\n
The violence of the pro-Jakarta militias, bent on reversing
\nwhat had been an overwhelming vote for statehood, deeply shocked
\nthe Portuguese. It triggered demonstrations of a size and
\nemotional intensity not seen since the turbulent days of
\nPortugal's 1974 revolution.<\/p>\n
People from all walks of life and political allegiance took to
\nthe streets, united in their support for the East Timorese.<\/p>\n
Although Australian-led troops are slowly restoring order to
\nthe Pacific territory, the events in East Timor continue to
\ndominate national attention, eclipsing the election campaign.<\/p>\n
For two days late last week, the official hustings were
\neffectively suspended as Portugal gave a hero's welcome to Xanana
\nGusmao, the former anti-Indonesia guerrilla fighter who heads the
\nindependence movement in East Timor.<\/p>\n
\"Timor is ending up being a tremendously unifying force,\" said
\npolitical analyst Vicente Jorge Silva, former editor of the
\nLisbon daily O Publico. \"And it is obvious that it is the
\ngovernment that benefits most, politically,\" he added.<\/p>\n
Opposition campaign leaders complain that voters are now in
\nlittle mood to hear criticism of the ruling party.<\/p>\n
Political jibes against Guterres and his government, part of
\nthe usual give-and-take of political campaigning, risk sounding
\nanti-patriotic, such is the strength of feeling generated by the
\nTimor issue, they say.<\/p>\n
\"The people are united behind a national cause and that is
\nclearly benefiting the Socialists,\" one senior PSD campaign
\nofficial told Reuters.<\/p>\n
Guterres has been hammering home his advantage, trying to get
\nout the extra votes to ensure he reaches the magic 116-seat
\nfigure in parliament.<\/p>\n
But even so he has had to tread carefully, avoiding calling
\nopenly for an \"absolute majority\" because the phrase has turned
\ninto something of a political taboo, with echoes of
\nauthoritarianism and arrogance, analysts say.<\/p>\n
The Socialist leader, the first of the new generation of
\ncenter-left leaders in western Europe to come up for re-election,
\nsays he needs strong parliamentary backing to push through
\nneeded, but controversial reforms in areas such as the health and
\npension systems and tax policy.<\/p>\n
He has warned that another minority government could lead to a
\nperiod of political instability, with opposition parties poised
\nto take the first opportunity to bring him down.<\/p>\n
The Social Democrats abstained on the last three budgets
\npresented by the government because the country was seeking to
\nmake the grade for the European single currency, a goal shared by
\nthe conservative opposition.<\/p>\n
But with Portugal safely inside monetary union from the
\nbeginning of 1999, this restraint no longer existed, Guterres has
\nwarned. \"It would be different this time,\" he told Reuters
\ntelevision recently.<\/p>\n
But analysts dismiss the political instability argument as
\nelectioneering, arguing that there is very little ideologically
\nto separate the Socialists from the Social Democrats.<\/p>\n
\"You need a microscope to find any differences,\" said Jorge
\nSilva.<\/p>\n
The Socialists have privatised more state sector companies
\nthan the Social Democrat government they replaced and have done
\nlittle to upset the business community during their four years in
\npower.<\/p>\n
Even without East Timor, this is an election that the
\nSocialists had long looked certain to win, analysts say.<\/p>\n
The economy is growing at one of the fastest rates in Europe,
\nfueling the \"feel-good\" factor of Portugal's burgeoning middle
\nclass.<\/p>\n
With entry into the European single currency, interest rates
\nhave tumbled, helping to finance a consumer boom and triggering a
\nsurge in the housing market as mortgage costs drop.<\/p>\n
As if that were not enough, the main opposition party is still
\nin disarray after having been forced to change its leader in May
\nin a row over an alliance with the Popular Party.<\/p>\n
Analysts say that new party leader Jose Manuel Durao Barroso,
\na former foreign minister, has proved no match so far for
\nGuterres in political debate.<\/p>\n
\"Basically, people look around the political scene and see no
\nreason to make any change. And they won't,\" Jorge Silva said.<\/p>",
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