Dry Season Peak Predicted for August, These Are the Most Affected Regions
The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the peak of the dry season will occur in August. BMKG reveals that several regions expected to be most affected by the prolonged dry season are located south of the equator.
“Based on our predictions, the dry season will arrive in Indonesia starting from April, May to June, with many areas experiencing it in May. It begins in eastern Indonesia, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, Bali, then Java’s coastal areas, followed by Java’s highlands to southern Sumatra,” said BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani after a meeting with Commission V of the DPR, at the parliamentary complex in Senayan, Jakarta, on Monday (13/4/2026).
He stated that in July, Indonesia will enter a weak to moderate El Niño phase. Consequently, the peak of the dry season is predicted for August.
“Thus, the peak of the dry season will be in August, with the majority of regions in Indonesia reaching their peak then,” he said.
“Therefore, the dry season in Indonesia will arrive slightly earlier, making it longer and drier compared to the 30-year climatological average,” he added.
Faisal explained that the areas most affected during the dry season are those south of the equator. He said these regions have the potential to experience longer droughts.
“Yes, of course, the most affected will primarily be south of the equator. South of the equator,” he clarified.
“For land and forest fires themselves, there are six provinces most affected, starting from Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, then West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan to South Kalimantan. These are the six provinces,” he continued.
Nevertheless, he noted that rain is still possible in areas that have entered the dry season. This, he said, is because the definition of the dry season is determined by rainfall amounts lower than a certain threshold.
“So, will there be rain during the dry season? Yes, rain is possible, but not more than 150 millimetres per month. That’s what is considered dry season conditions,” he explained.
“But note that there will be confirmations: ‘It’s still raining here?’ Yes, because some enter the dry season in April, especially as I mentioned earlier in NTT, NTB, Bali, and others enter in May in other areas,” he added.
Furthermore, he provided weather predictions for Eid al-Adha. Faisal said that during Hajj Lebaran, weather conditions in parts of Indonesia will have entered the dry season.
“It depends on the region. Some have already entered the dry season, some are just starting or slightly delayed. But generally, nearly 50 percent of Indonesia’s seasonal zones will enter the dry season earlier, around April,” he stated.