Dry Season Arrives Earlier, BMKG Warns of Drought and Forest Fires

BMKG predicts the dry season in Indonesia for 2026 will arrive earlier. BMKG has reminded regional heads to anticipate potential declines in air quality and forest fires. ‘The environmental sector needs to prepare a rapid-response mechanism by local governments to anticipate possible declines in air quality. For the forestry and disaster-management sectors, we need readiness against the potential drought and occurrence of forest and land fires in the upcoming dry season,’ said Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Deputy for Climate at BMKG, at a BMKG virtual press conference on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. Ardhasena said the dry season in Indonesia is forecast to begin earlier. The dry season is expected to begin in April. A total of 46.5 percent, or 320 wet-season zones, will experience an earlier dry season this year. BMKG explained that several areas will experience the dry season earlier, including Aceh, DKI Jakarta, parts of North Sumatra, parts of Riau and the Riau Islands, northern and southern Bengkulu, and much of Jambi. Most of West Java, western and northern Central Java, and parts of DI Yogyakarta (DIY) and East Java will experience similar. BMKG also forecasts portions of Bali, NTB and NTT, southern Kalimantan, northern and central Kalimantan, much of Sulawesi, and parts of northern and southern Maluku, as well as parts of the Papua Highlands will experience an earlier dry season. ‘The early start of the 2026 dry season is predicted to be earlier than normal. Rainfall during the 2026 dry season is forecast to be generally below normal or drier. The peak of the dry season is largely predicted to occur in August 2026,’ he said. BMKG also warns of the danger from El Niño in Indonesia in 2026. BMKG monitoring shows the La Niña phenomenon ended in February 2026. BMKG says El Niño is expected to arrive in Indonesia in the middle of this year. ‘From mid-2026, our forecast indicates there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of El Niño occurring, with weak to moderate intensity,’ Ardhasena concluded.