Dry season around the corner: Agency

Dry season around the corner: Agency

JAKARTA (JP): The dry season this year will begin as early as
April in Jakarta and most northern areas of East Java, which
means that during March there will still be rainfall, the weather
forecast agency says.

Some parts of eastern Indonesia, such as eastern Lombok and
Sumbawa's western coast, will even enter the dry season as early
as the first ten days of this month, the Meteorology and
Geophysics Agency said yesterday.

Karjoto Santokusumo, the agency chairman, told reporters that
60 percent of the dry season of this year would be "normal,"
which will hopefully help boost food production.

The eastern regions of the country, from Bali up to East
Timor, except the two mentioned areas, are expected to enter the
dry spell later than the western part, as early as April, he
said.

Karjoto added that most of Sumatra, except Batanghari,
Indragiri Hilir and south-east Aceh, would only dry out in May.
In the same month the dry season will begin in northern Central
Java and East Java, he said.

The eastern part of South Kalimantan and East Kalimantan and
the central part of South Sulawesi and the tip of Minahasa, in
the north of the island, would be the latest regions, with the
dry season beginning only in July.

The central part of West Java and Central Java, the source of
many rivers, will get the dry season in June.

Rain during the dry season out of Java island will be "above
normal" or "normal", he said, except for southern Sumatra which
will be "below normal".

Karjoto observed that for the past five years there have been
"normal" rainy seasons, he said.

"The rainfall during the dry season of 1995 hit 103 percent,"
Karjoto said. "1995 was the most 'friendly' year from the point
of view of food production."

In the southern hemisphere there is a phenomenon called "ENSO"
(El Nino-Southern Oscillation), which affected rainfall in
Indonesia in 1995. As a result, the dry season of that year was
"normal", as the weather agency had predicted.

Karjoto said that ENSO weakened during the last part of 1995
and the beginning of 1996. The phenomenon is now being followed
by its antithesis, "La Nina", which increases rainfall.

"If ENSO comes back, we will have to be careful in either 1997
or 1998 or 1999," he said. He did not give a more precise
statement because the agency has not found the correct prediction
method.
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