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Dry Season 2026 in Bali Predicted to Arrive Earlier Than Usual

| Source: DETIK_BALI Translated from Indonesian | Social Policy
Dry Season 2026 in Bali Predicted to Arrive Earlier Than Usual
Image: DETIK_BALI

The 2026 dry season is forecast to arrive earlier than in previous years. The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Regional Office III in Denpasar has predicted the onset of the dry season in Bali to commence as early as March through May 2026, distributed across 20 seasonal zones (ZOM).

“Compared with the average period from 1991 to 2020, most regions of Bali are predicted to experience an earlier than usual dry season onset,” said Cahyo Nugroho, Head of the BMKG Denpasar Office, during a press conference on Thursday (12 March 2026).

Rai Budi Samantu, analysis staff at the Jembrana Climatology Station, explained that the dry season prediction is based on analysis of rainfall data from dozens of observation points across Bali. According to Samantu, data was obtained from 107 rainfall stations distributed across various regencies in Bali. The analysis generated rainfall data, which was then examined using a 30-year climate pattern—specifically the normal period from 1991 to 2020.

“From this analysis, Bali is divided into 20 seasonal zones (ZOM) with different rainfall characteristics,” Samantu added.

This year’s earlier dry season arrival is due to reduced rainfall compared with normal levels. This condition is influenced by changes in wind direction and sea surface temperatures that are cooler than normal, resulting in reduced water evaporation and decreased cloud formation for rainfall.

It is noted that rainfall this year is estimated to be drier than usual. Based on BMKG Denpasar office data, 18 out of 20 seasonal zones, or approximately 90% of Bali, will experience below-normal rainfall. Consequently, the amount of rainfall is expected to be less than the historical average.

The BMKG Denpasar office predicts that the peak of the dry season in Bali will occur in August 2026. The public has been advised of the possibility of water shortages.

“Most regions of Bali are predicted to experience a drier dry season, so the public needs to begin preparing for the possibility of water shortages,” said Samantu.

Sequence of Areas Entering the 2026 Dry Season in Bali

  1. Earliest in March 2026

Early March (1–10 March)

  • Nusa Penida Island

Mid-March (11–20 March)

  • Southern Gianyar

  • Southern Klungkung

  • Southern Karangasem

  1. April 2026

Early April (1–10 April)

  • Most of Jembrana

  • Western, central, eastern and northern Buleleng

  • Central, eastern and southern Karangasem

  • Southern Bangli

  • Northern Klungkung

  • Southern Badung

  • Southern Gianyar

  • Southern Tabanan

  • Denpasar

Mid-April (11–20 April)

  • Central Bangli

Late April (21–30 April)

  • Central Tabanan

  • Southern Gianyar

  • Central Badung

  1. May 2026

Early May (1–10 May)

  • Eastern Jembrana

  • Western, northern and central Tabanan

  • Central, southern and south-eastern Buleleng

  • Northern and central Badung

  • Northern, central and southern Bangli

  • Western Karangasem

  • Central Gianyar

Mid-May (10–20 May)

  • Southern Buleleng

  • Northern Tabanan

  • Northern Badung

  • Northern Gianyar

  • Central Bangli

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