Dry Season 2026 Arriving Earlier, These Regions Will Face Scorching Heat
Jakarta — Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has predicted that the 2026 dry season could arrive earlier than usual, with nearly half the country’s regions entering drought conditions ahead of schedule.
BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani explained that the early onset of the dry season is being triggered by the weakening of the weak La Niña phenomenon by February 2026. Global climate conditions have currently shifted to a neutral phase with potential movement towards El Niño in mid-year.
“Monitoring of climate anomalies in the Pacific Ocean shows that the current ENSO index is at -0.28, or in a neutral phase, and is predicted to persist until June 2026,” Faisal stated in an official statement from the BMKG website.
However, BMKG cautioned that the likelihood of weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions emerging increases during the second half of this year, with a probability of around 50–60%. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon is expected to remain in a neutral phase throughout 2026.
BMKG noted that the dry season is expected to begin in April 2026 across 114 seasonal zones (ZOM), or approximately 16.3% of Indonesian territory. Regions affected earliest include the northern coast of western Java, most of Central and East Java, and parts of Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi.
BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan explained that subsequent waves of drought will expand in the following months.
“A total of 184 ZOM, or 26.3% of the region, will enter the dry season in May, and 163 ZOM, or 23.3%, in June 2026,” he said.
Overall, BMKG estimates that 325 ZOM, or 46.5% of Indonesian territory, will experience an earlier-than-normal onset of the dry season. Meanwhile, 173 ZOM (24.7%) are predicted to experience typical timing, and 72 ZOM (10.3%) are expected to see a delayed start.
Regions with potential for accelerated drying include most of Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, southern and eastern Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.
BMKG also predicts that the peak of the dry season will occur in August 2026 across approximately 429 ZOM, or 61.4% of Indonesian territory. Some other regions will experience peak dryness earlier in July, whilst others will do so in September.
Beyond arriving earlier, this year’s dry season is also projected to be drier than usual. BMKG projects that 451 ZOM, or 64.5% of Indonesian territory, will experience drought with below-normal characteristics, or rainfall lower than average.
“With these conditions, the duration of the dry season in 57.2% of Indonesian territory is predicted to be longer than normal,” Faisal added.
Given this potential, BMKG is urging local government and communities to take anticipatory measures immediately, particularly in the food, water resources, and land sectors, as well as implementing shorter harvest cycles.