Don't Panic, Indonesian Citizens: The Rupiah's Fundamental Strength is Solid!
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The rupiah exchange rate opened weaker against the US dollar on the first trading day of the week, Monday (13/4/2026), in line with the strengthening of the US dollar in the global market.
According to Refinitiv data, the Garuda currency started trading in the red zone at Rp17,100/US, depreciatingby0.09 on the previous trading day, Friday (10/4/2026).
BCA Chief Economist David E. Sumual assessed that although it weakened, the rupiah’s fundamentals are quite solid. In fact, compared to other currencies, the strength of the Garuda’s exchange rate has improved.
“I just want to show that from the fundamental strength perspective, the rupiah is quite good. Economists usually calculate it as relative strength compared to other currencies - it’s improving,” he said at the Central Banking Forum 2026 themed Indonesia’s Economic Resilience in Facing Global Exchange Rate Volatility, in Jakarta, Monday (13/4/2026).
David also noted that Indonesia does carry out substantial imports. Large imports indeed require abundant dollar supplies. However, David reminded that Indonesia’s imports drive exports.
Furthermore, Indonesia’s inflation remains under control. Domestic inflation, according to David, is relatively low. Although it surged in February and March, it is now gradually declining.
Therefore, he assured that the rupiah deserves to strengthen. Meanwhile, David views the current rupiah weakening as more influenced by short-term investors.
“The rupiah’s movements are dominantly driven relatively more by portfolio investors,” he explained.
Head of Monetary Management and Securities Assets Department at BI, Erwin Gunawan, explained that there are three indicators signalling the rupiah’s potential to strengthen going forward. These three indicators, he said, are measures of the Garuda currency’s fundamentals.
“From the three fundamental indicators that we assess and observe, the rupiah’s condition is good,” said Erwin on the same occasion.
The first fundamental factor indicating that the rupiah is actually in a healthy condition is the current account deficit still around 0.69%. “This is still within our tolerance limit,” Erwin stated.
Second, is the inflation pressure still within BI’s target range throughout this year, 2.5% plus or minus 1%, namely 3.48% as the latest figure released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in March 2026.
Third, is the foreign exchange reserves which are now still around US$148.2 billion. This amount exceeds the global standard to meet six months of import obligations and government foreign debt payments.
“So from those three, the rupiah’s fundamentals are fine, even though we’re not immune to global turmoil,” he emphasised.
Erwin said that the exchange rate pressure so far is still related to external risk factors, namely the war in the Middle East between the United States and Israel with Iran, which is not a fundamental issue.
“Thus, in the medium to long term, the rupiah has hope of an strengthening trend. We must be patient in observing the conflict,” Erwin remarked.