Donald Trump Wants to End the War, Oil Prices Plunge to US$105

Global oil prices have reversed direction at the beginning of April, in line with the latest statement from the United States President, Donald Trump, who intends to end the war in Iran soon. After reaching US$118.35 per barrel on Tuesday, Brent prices have now fallen sharply to US$105.38 per barrel on Wednesday (1/4/2026) at 09:30 WIB. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was recorded at US$102.62 per barrel, slightly higher than Tuesday’s close of US$101.38. This movement follows an extraordinary rally throughout March, where Brent contracts recorded a monthly increase of up to 64%, the highest level since data began in 1988. According to Reuters, the rise was triggered by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted the global supply chain, particularly through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Although there was a sharp correction in previous trading, pressure on supplies remains evident. Reports indicate that maritime attack activities and threats to energy infrastructure have not subsided. On the other hand, diplomatic signals between the United States and Iran are emerging, with President Donald Trump’s statement opening the possibility of halting the conflict in two to three weeks. However, even if the conflict eases in the near term, supply disruptions are expected not to recover quickly. Damage to infrastructure and the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are factors hindering global oil distribution. This route is known to carry around 20% of world oil and LNG trade. On the production side, a Reuters survey shows that OPEC output fell by 7.3 million barrels per day in March compared to the previous month. This decline is related to export restrictions due to disrupted distribution routes. As a result, annual oil price projections have undergone significant revisions. The latest consensus estimates that Brent prices will average US$82.85 per barrel in 2026, an increase of around 30% compared to pre-conflict projections. Additional pressure is also coming from Asia. China is reported to extend its fuel export ban until April, with limited exceptions for some countries. This policy reduces regional supply and tightens the market, particularly for countries dependent on energy imports. In another region, distribution dynamics are also changing. Russia has begun redirecting oil shipments to energy-crisis-hit countries like Cuba, while Nigeria is increasing crude oil allocations to the domestic Dangote refinery. These steps reduce global export volumes and intensify buyer competition in the international market.