Donald Trump Says War Will End Soon; Oil Prices Plummet

Global crude oil prices experienced an exceptionally volatile trading session in recent days. After steep gains, the market has begun to cool.

Refinitiv data showed oil prices on Tuesday morning (10 March 2026) at 09:50 WIB standing at US$98.96 per barrel for Brent crude and US$94.77 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). These prices represented a decline from extreme spikes at the beginning of the week when markets panicked over potential disruptions to global supply.

Looking at movements over the past week, the oil price rally has actually been accelerating since late February. Brent crude, for instance, moved from US$70.75 per barrel on 26 February, then surged in stages to US$77.74 (2 March), US$81.40 (3-4 March), and eventually broke through US$92.69 on 6 March. The surge continued sharply at the start of this week as escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered concerns about global energy corridors.

The tensions centred on war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, causing markets to worry about world oil supply stability. The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes—emerged as the most sensitive pressure point. Disruptions along this route prevented tankers from sailing for more than a week and forced several producers to halt production due to storage capacity limitations.

This situation drove oil prices to spike sharply on Monday. Brent and WTI briefly touched US$119 per barrel, the highest level since mid-2022. The surge was triggered by a combination of factors: concerns about global supply, production cuts from several Gulf nations, and exceptionally high geopolitical uncertainty.

Several oil producers in the Gulf region reportedly began cutting production due to shipping disruptions. Iraq, for example, reduced production at southern oil fields by around 70 per cent to 1.3 million barrels per day, while Kuwait Petroleum Corporation also reduced output and declared force majeure conditions. Saudi Arabia was said to have adjusted production in response to market disruptions.

However, the euphoria of high prices did not last long. The market reversed direction after US President Donald Trump stated that the war in the Middle East would likely end sooner than expected. In an interview with CBS, Trump said military operations against Iran were already “very close to completion,” much faster than the initial estimate of four to five weeks.

This statement immediately eased some of the global energy market’s concerns. In addition, reports emerged that Washington was considering several options to curb oil prices, including loosening energy sanctions against Russia and the possibility of releasing US strategic petroleum reserves. These measures were seen as potentially adding to global supply if prices continued to surge.

Nonetheless, geopolitical uncertainty has not fully dissipated. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that Tehran would not allow “even a single litre of oil” to leave the region if American and Israeli attacks continued. This statement indicates the conflict still has potential to rock energy markets at any time.