Domino Effect of the Hormuz Strait Blockade by Iran: EU in Distress as it Pleads with Russia

The United States and Israel’s confrontation with Iran in the Middle East is likely to force the European Union to scrap its plan to abandon Russian natural gas next year. Energy Minister Terje Aasland of Norway said that European natural gas prices had jumped 75 percent this week, or reached their highest level in three years. The surge comes as a result of the US and Israel’s war campaign against Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the Middle East. The attacks have forced LNG tankers to largely stop traversing the Strait of Hormuz, and have led Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, to halt production since Monday, 2 March 2026. “With the geopolitical situation we see today, I am sure the debate about resuming Russian natural gas imports will be rekindled. One way or another,” Aasland said, as cited by Reuters on Friday, 6 March 2026. He also noted that Norway, the EU’s largest pipeline gas supplier, was already producing at full capacity, leaving no extra production available. The EU gets between 5 and 15 percent of its total natural gas supply from sources in the Middle East, notably Qatar. The United States remains the dominant LNG supplier with about 60 percent of the market. Meanwhile, in February 2026 the EU agreed to ban all imports of natural gas from Russia, which was the bloc’s largest supplier, by the end of 2027, according to Bloomberg. The move is designed to be approved by a “reinforced majority” of member states that apply trade and energy laws, rather than as a sanctions measure requiring unanimous consent. The EU has repeatedly faced energy cost spikes since it began reducing Russia oil and gas imports following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022. Hungary and Slovakia, which lack access to the sea, have opposed the measure and have threatened to challenge the ban in court. Goldman Sachs estimates that a one-month halt to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could push European natural gas prices up to 130 percent above current levels, placing further pressure on households and industry.