Domestic Cryptocurrency Market Players Monitor Federal Reserve Policy Direction
Jakarta - Domestic cryptocurrency market participants stated that they are currently in a phase of awaiting certainty regarding the direction of US monetary policy, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions in relation to US inflation, which was recorded as stable at 2.4 per cent in February 2026.
“The February 2026 inflation figure of 2.4 per cent aligns with market expectations, so investor sentiment is relatively more stable,” said Antony Kusuma, Vice President of Indodax, in a statement in Jakarta on Friday.
In such situations, he continued, market participants typically focus on monitoring the direction of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy because monetary policy remains the primary factor influencing liquidity and the movement of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
“For now, the market tends to be in a waiting phase while monitoring developments in subsequent economic data,” he said.
He noted that according to the latest report, US monthly inflation in February 2026 rose 0.3 per cent, slightly higher than the 0.2 per cent increase in January.
Meanwhile, core inflation (core CPI), which excludes food and energy components, rose 0.2 per cent monthly and 2.5 per cent annually, in line with analyst projections.
The stability of these inflation figures, he continued, strengthens the view that price pressures in the US economy remain relatively controlled, although they remain above the 2 per cent inflation target set by the Federal Reserve.
These monetary policy expectations are also reflected in market projections compiled through the CME FedWatch Tool, which shows almost a 99 per cent probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its interest rate at the March meeting.
Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in April is estimated to be relatively small, at around 11 per cent.
This condition, according to him, is causing the cryptocurrency market to move more defensively whilst awaiting certainty on the next direction of monetary policy. In the cryptocurrency market, investor response to the inflation data release appeared relatively limited.
Beyond inflation factors, geopolitical dynamics and energy prices are also receiving investor attention. In recent weeks, oil price volatility has increased amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In line with this, Antony urged investors to prioritise disciplined risk management and conduct independent research (DYOR), as well as consider staged investment strategies such as Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) to navigate cryptocurrency market volatility.
Through various educational initiatives, his firm continues to promote increased cryptocurrency asset literacy in Indonesia whilst providing a safe and transparent trading platform for all users.