Dollar Index Strengthens; Rupiah Today Predicted to Touch Rp 17,000 per US Dollar
Jakarta – The exchange rate in the spot market during Tuesday’s trading (10/3/2026) is estimated to continue weakening, following a depreciation of 0.14 per cent to Rp 16,949 per US dollar at the close of Monday’s trading.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi predicts that the rupiah will fluctuate but close weaker in the range of Rp 16,950–Rp 17,000 per US dollar.
“The US dollar index is strengthening amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging global energy prices. These conditions are placing pressure on a number of emerging market currencies, including the rupiah,” he said in a press statement to Kompas.com on Monday evening (9/3/2026).
“Oil prices have surged by as much as 30 per cent, far exceeding $100 per barrel and approaching the highest levels seen during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022,” he added.
The surge in oil prices was triggered by Israeli and American airstrikes against several Iranian oil facilities over the past weekend. Iran subsequently retaliated by launching missile strikes against several oil facilities in the Middle East region.
“Israeli and American airstrikes targeted Iranian oil facilities over the weekend, whilst Tehran responded by launching missile strikes against several oil facilities in Middle Eastern countries,” he explained.
Disruptions to energy distribution routes have the potential to cause global oil supply disruptions, should the Strait of Hormuz be closed for an extended period.
The geopolitical situation has further intensified following Iran’s appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as a successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s Supreme Leader. This appointment is viewed as indicating that hardline factions remain in control in Tehran amid the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.
“In Asia, China’s consumer price index inflation grew 1.3 per cent year-on-year in February, according to government data. This figure is higher than the forecast of 0.9 per cent and represents the fastest rate of growth in three years,” Ibrahim explained.
The inflation increase has been primarily driven by increased spending during the extended Lunar New Year holiday period. Demand for travel, services, and consumer goods increased significantly during this period.
Nevertheless, China’s producer price index (PPI) continues to contract, so markets are awaiting signals as to whether inflationary pressures in the country will persist after the surge in demand during the holiday period.