Dollar at Rp16,910, Deputy Finance Minister Reveals Its Effect on the APBN Deficit
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar is under pressure, breaching the upper level of Rp16,910 per US$ at the morning trading session opening on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. The depreciation in rupiah today is around 0.36% from yesterday’s close at Rp16,850 per US.Innominalterms, therupiahweakenedbyRp60perUS. Deputy Finance Minister Juda Agung said that every depreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar has a direct effect on the pressure on the APBN (State Budget). He said a Rp100 depreciation against the US dollar would impact the deficit by around Rp0.8 trillion. This mirrors the condition where each US$1 increase in the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) could add about Rp6.8 trillion to the deficit, and a 0.1 percentage point rise in yields on government securities could add around Rp1.9 trillion to the APBN.
Nevertheless, Juda Agung stressed that, based on simulations by the Ministry of Finance, with a plausible scenario relating to exchange-rate pressure, oil prices, and rising yields on government securities (SBN), the APBN deficit this year will still be around 3%, not exceeding the safe limit in the State Finance Law. “The stress-test we conducted under a plausible scenario shows the deficit remains below 3%, and the debt over GDP ratio remains under control,” said Juda Agung at the Indonesia Economic Forum 2026 held in Jakarta, cited on Wednesday, 4 March 2026.
Separately, the morning pressure on the exchange rate prompted comments from Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti of Bank Indonesia (BI). She emphasised that BI will continue to be present in the market to safeguard exchange-rate stability and prevent spillovers from the widening Middle East conflict. Destry said that intervention would continue through Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) transactions in the offshore market, spot and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) in the domestic market, complemented by purchases of government securities in the secondary market.
“The rupiah weakness remains aligned with regional peers, weakening 0.51% month-to-date, and is comparatively better than regional peers. Foreign exchange reserves remain at US$154.6 billion at end-January 2026, and foreign inflows into the domestic financial market in 2026 have amounted to Rp25.7 trillion,” Destry said in a formal statement on Wednesday, 4 March 2026.
The rupiah’s movement today is still heavily influenced by external sentiment, particularly rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East among Iran, the United States, and Israel. This situation has sharply increased global market uncertainty and prompted investors to shun risk assets. In this environment, the US dollar strengthened again as it is seen as a safe-haven asset, and investor demand for dollars rose as global markets moved into risk-off mode.