Discrepancy! Here's the Difference in Indonesia's Economic Projections from ADB and World Bank
International institutions have presented divergent economic projections for Indonesia in 2026. Among them are the projections from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The World Bank released its projections for economic growth as part of the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update April 2026 edition. This document was released on Wednesday (9 April 2026).
In the document, the World Bank projects Indonesia’s economic growth in 2026 at 4.7%. This World Bank estimate is down from the previous projection of 4.8%.
The World Bank states that growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region will slow in 2026 due to external shocks. Therefore, the regional economy is also expected to reach only 4.2%.
“Regional growth is projected to slow to 4.2% in 2026 from 5.0% in 2025, as energy shocks from the Middle East conflict worsen the adverse impacts of rising trade barriers, global policy uncertainty, and domestic economic difficulties,” said Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, in a release on Wednesday (9 April 2026).
Meanwhile, ADB revised upwards its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2026, after the 2025 growth rate was slightly above expectations, namely 5.1% from the previous 5%.
In the newly released Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026 edition today, Friday (10 April 2026), ADB estimates that Indonesia’s economy in 2026 could grow by 5.2%. This is higher than the projection in the December 2025 ADO edition of 5.1% for 2026.
Nevertheless, for 2027, Indonesia’s economic growth rate is maintained at around 5.2%. Considering economic disruptions due to the Middle East conflict and ongoing trade uncertainties.
This projection for Indonesia’s economic growth is somewhat contrary to the Asia and Pacific region projection, which is expected to slow to 5.1% for both 2026 and 2027. Although still higher than the December 2025 projection for 2026 of 4.6%, it is lower than the overall 2025 projection of 5.4%.
“The prolonged conflict in the Middle East poses the greatest risk to this regional projection because the situation could lead to higher energy and food prices for longer, as well as tighter financial conditions,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park, quoted from a press release.
Therefore, ADB considers that the region faces a challenging and uncertain global environment from a relatively strong position, given solid domestic demand, stable labour markets, and higher public infrastructure spending, which support economic resilience.
“Resurgent trade policy uncertainty adds to the risks, so governments in various countries need to pursue appropriate macroeconomic policies to maintain growth and contain inflation, through targeted policies to protect vulnerable households,” said Albert Park.