Danger! Veteran Analyst Predicts Global Gold Prices to Drop by up to 20 Percent
Global gold prices have started the second quarter of 2026 on a positive note after recording the largest monthly decline since the early 1980s. However, behind this strengthening, danger signals are emerging, with estimates suggesting the precious metal could plummet by around 20 percent.
Veteran technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader, Avi Gilburt, warns that the major correction in gold is not yet over. Gilburt reveals two technical scenarios that could drive gold prices down to below US$4,000 to US$3,800, or approximately Rp67.9 million to Rp64 million (estimated exchange rate of Rp16,980 per US dollar) per ounce.
The first scenario indicates that gold prices could be held back in the current resistance area before eventually moving lower. The second scenario is deemed far more dangerous, according to Gilburt, if gold prices break through the US$4,800 level, the rally could continue to US$5,200 before reversing direction and experiencing a sharp decline.
“This path is more ‘wicked’ or deceptive, because the price increase will make everyone believe that the correction has ended, when in fact it has only just begun,” Gilburt stated, quoted from KITCO News on Friday, 3 April 2026.
Currently, the spot gold price is recorded at around US$4,775.10, or approximately Rp81 million per ounce. This price shows a strengthening of more than 2 percent in a single day.
Not only gold, but Gilburt also sees a similar pattern in silver. As long as prices remain below the March peak, he estimates the downward pressure will continue to the US$53.50 level.
Nevertheless, he emphasises the difference in strategy between traders and investors. If prices manage to hold at the projected support level, that condition could become a buying opportunity.
For the long term, Gilburt actually sees silver as an attractive asset. He considers prices below US$60 as a golden opportunity for investors.
“For silver in the long term—over the next 10 years—prices below US$60 will be a very good buying opportunity,” Gilburt continued.
On the other hand, he also highlights opportunities in mining company stocks. According to him, several mining stocks have the potential to outperform the performance of gold and silver in the next rally phase.