Cryptocurrency Market Enters Ramadan 2026 Volatility Phase; Investors Warned of Fatigue
As Ramadan 2026 commences, the cryptocurrency asset market is once again displaying the seasonal volatility pattern known as the Ramadan Effect. Although frequently associated with price rallies, historical data indicates that Bitcoin movements tend to be sharp in the early month but often lose momentum or enter a “fatigue phase” approaching Eid al-Fitr.
Based on internal research by Tokocrypto spanning 2019–2025, Bitcoin has recorded inconsistent fluctuations. Indeed, over the past five years, Bitcoin has experienced significant corrections during the holy month, such as in 2021 (-21.71%) and 2022 (-16.00%).
Tokocrypto CEO Calvin Kizana views this phenomenon as normal market dynamics but cautions investors not to fixate solely on seasonal narratives. “Ramadan is not a primary factor determining cryptocurrency market direction. Prices remain influenced by global liquidity, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and international macro sentiment. Investors must be disciplined and not rely solely on seasonal narratives,” Calvin stated in an official statement on Sunday, 1 March 2026.
The research also highlights shifts in retail investor behaviour in Indonesia. Transaction activity slows during daytime hours and surges significantly at night, particularly after Iftar until the pre-dawn meal period.
Additionally, selling pressure at the start of Ramadan is often triggered by profit-taking to meet seasonal expenses such as Zakat (alms) payments or Eid holiday travel preparations. For 2026, Tokocrypto predicts demand structures remain fragile, though technical rebound opportunities exist. “The more realistic pattern to anticipate is fluctuating and unstable movements rather than smooth uptrends throughout the Ramadan period,” Calvin noted.
To capitalise on public enthusiasm, Tokocrypto launched its “Ramadan Becomes More Blessed, Bonuses Abound” campaign offering total prizes of Rp250 million. The programme aims to boost digital literacy whilst facilitating charitable traditions during the holy month.
One innovation introduced is a cryptocurrency gift card feature, enabling users to send digital assets as gifts or bonuses to relatives safely and conveniently. “Ramadan represents both a moment for sharing and strengthening literacy. We wish to present a programme that is attractive in terms of prizes whilst encouraging healthy and responsible cryptocurrency investment understanding,” Calvin concluded.
To support education, Tokocrypto is hosting live streaming sessions with cryptocurrency experts and thought leaders to discuss investment strategies and current Web3 trends amid global market dynamics. The digital asset, cryptocurrency, and blockchain technology industry remains committed to advancing literacy to prevent the public from succumbing to herd behaviour or FOMO (fear of missing out).