Countering Global Pressures, Silver Prices Begin to Recover Within a Week
Silver prices showed significant dynamics at the end of the trading week, with the spot price closing at US$69.59 per ounce on Friday (27/3/2026). This closing figure marks a recovery from the week’s lowest point of US$67.71, although it briefly touched US$71.01 during intraday trading. This price surge reflects investors’ responses to competing technical and fundamental sentiments amid global macroeconomic turbulence.
Macroeconomic Pressures and Technical Reversal
The recovery in silver prices at the end of the week was heavily influenced by technical factors. Sharp selling action mid-week pushed prices close to the 200-day moving average indicator. That level was then seen by fund managers and institutional investors as a long-term accumulation opportunity, triggering buying action in the precious metals market. However, it should be noted that on the daily chart, a golden cross has occurred in XAGUSD, signalling potential directional reversal since last Friday (20/3/2026).
Despite the technical recovery, silver still faces substantial macroeconomic pressures. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the surge in crude oil prices exceeding US$110 per barrel have reignited expectations of high inflation. In response to these conditions, market participants are currently “discounting” the potential for US benchmark interest rate cuts in 2026. This scenario of persistently high interest rates historically burdens the valuation of assets that do not yield returns.
Supply Balance and Valuation Normalisation
From a fundamental perspective, the silver market is still supported by projections of a structural deficit for the sixth consecutive year. Silver Institute data estimates that demand will exceed supply by 67 million ounces in 2026. This situation is driven by expectations of a 20% surge in physical investment, which can offset potential slowdowns in industrial absorption, including solar panel manufacturing that is beginning to seek substitute materials. This fundamental imbalance acts as a buffer to prevent prices from correcting too deeply.
Nevertheless, the current closing level of US$69.59 per ounce represents a market normalisation phase, recording a decline of around 40% from the annual closing high of US$116.57 on 28 January. That record price at the start of the year was largely driven by massive retail euphoria sentiment, similar to the XAU market.
Considering the lingering market volatility and risks of tight monetary policy adjustments, forward market projections indicate that silver prices will continue to seek their fundamental equilibrium point, with the most rational consolidation range estimated at US$60 to US$70 per ounce.